BJP Won Assam & Puducherry ,Vote Percentage increased in TN & Kerala But Lost West Bengal in Assembly Elections 2021

*Kumar Rakesh

As election results declared, it is now clear that BJP did very well in Assam and Puducherry but unfortunately got defeated in Bengal. BJP lost the battleground of Bengal with a major margin. BJP’s defeat is indeed a great victory for TMC in West Bengal. This victory is definitely going to work as a catalyst and will raise the spirits of Trinamool Congress more than ever. Despite a 71 percent Hindu population in Bengal, a party like the BJP had to face defeat. At the same time, BJP won in Assam and Puducherry. The formation of a BJP government in Puducherry can be said to be the new link of the party in the southern states.

In Kerala, the Left party is going to come into government once again, while in Tamil Nadu, DMK is going to form the government as per its expectation. On a positive note, the 11.30 percent vote of BJP in Kerala is showing the bright future of the party in the state.

First of all let’s talk about West Bengal’s election results. It is just after the election victory, the Trinamool workers’ violent behavior could be seen towards the BJP which is a worrying issue yet again. It has become clear that what is going to be the image of Bengal in upcoming days now.  As soon as the victory of TMC was assured on May 2, Trinamool activists burnt BJP offices in several areas, including Hooghly, Durgapur, Shivpur, Haldia, Nandigram, in the fire of violence. But Mamta Banerji chose to keep silent even after knowing everything. Why? Mamata talked to the media several times after these incidents, but did not even think once to mention those incidents. Not even a sorry? These signs are questions regarding people and development of Bengal. Will Bengal become the main architect of violent politics in India? This is going to be a big question, also from Mamta Banerji.

As Mamata Banerji is planning to be Prime Minister of India but she has no capacity to handle one states this type of lumpen & criminal activities. Should it be character of any political person in a country? How she can compare herself with big stature of PM Narendra Bhai Modi. She has miles to go to achieve that status in present scenario.

Bengal election created a new history in Bengal this time as the one who is the party leader has lost the election. What an irony that Mamta Banerji’s party has won, but she herself lost her seat. She lost her seat by a total of 1957 votes. Her rival BJP candidate Shuvendu Adhikari from Nandigram defeated her like anything. It was a great challenge to her in this election. So, we can say, she has lost her face with this great defeat. So,  she is speechless.

If we see the scenario, she couldn’t accept her defeat in easy ways. Her followers with her directions had tried to make fool to media & others about two hours. But after official announcements by Election commission, she accepted her defeat.

As her supporters were also not ready to digest her defeat and so they all threw stones on the car of Shuvendu Adhikari. Shuvendu somehow tried and escaped from that violence. But what did we see? Violence again? So is this a special introduction to Mamta Banerji’s party??

If this is going to happen yet again then the road to development for Bengal & her party may be blocked with all means. This type of violence scenario will be hurdles for overall development & investment in Bengal in future.

As we know, The Bengal has been  known for the great contributions of Swami Ramakrishna Paramahamsa, Swami Vivekananda, Ravindra Nath Tagore, Bankim Chandra, Ishwar Chand Vidyasagar, Raja Ram Mohan Roy, Bimal Mitra, Khudiram Bose, Subhash Chandra Bose, Shyam Prasad Mukherjee, Satyajit Ray, Jyoti Basu, Pranab Mukherjee for development and betterment of state & country  but how Bengal will tolerate this type violent & unethical activities by the workers of TMC & Mamta Banerji .Will Mamata Didi’s New Bengal forget the creative contributions of those great legends just because of vote bank political activities by TMC party workers?

Mamata Didi, you have no right to make such a lewd joke with the historical Bengal of our great men. Sustain and take care of your activists, which is the need of the hour. People of Bengal are expecting you to complete all pending works & projects  that   you have not done in the last 10 years  to achieve  in coming 5 years. Now it is your chance/turn to fulfill the dream of “Sonar Bangla” (Glorious Bengal).

Mamta Banerji is now expert of election politics with three elections   but she has to learn the dynamics & politics of development for West Bengal without going caste, creed & religion with all means, as PM Narendra Modi also announced that centre will give all support for the integrated development of the state.

So, she has to make her state as World Model for development. So state & country will remember her as social reformer & modern architect of New Bengal, if she can.

From the BJP’s point of view, many questions have been pointed out for all the analysts and party strategists: how did this happen in Bengal? Why did it happen? What happened to Jai Shri Ram versus Jai Bangla? How did those 200 seats of cross claims of many leaders of BJP? Why did it fail? Why did BJP veterans Babul Supriyo, Swapna Dasgupta, Rahul Sinha, Vaishali Dalmiya, and Locket Chatterjee got to face defeat? Why did the BJP, which had once raised the slogan of 200 crosses, have them reduced to 77 seats? There are many such questions, for which the BJP will have to find the answer. BJP must work to get the answers of all such questions as the future strategy will have to be implemented from now only.

After analyzing the results of West Bengal, it seems that there is a difference of 9.8 percent between the vote share of the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. The Trinamool got 47.9 percent, while the BJP got 38.1 percent.

The BJP’s vote percentage compared to the previous Lok Sabha elections was reduced by nearly 4 percent, while Trinamool’s vote percentage increased by 4 percent. Based on the data, a minimum of 45 percent of the votes are required to form a government.

In this case, Mamata ‘s election strategist Prashant Kishore’s claim was now 100 percent correct. Shri Kishore’s claim last December 2020 was that BJP will get confined to two digits and the same thing happened this time. According to him, it is a different thing to be popular, but getting votes in the name of that popularity is another thing.

In West Bengal perspectives, one important key factor are Muslim voters that is about 35% with overall in the state. According to facts all muslim voters voted to TMC in place of Congress & Left parties .This was key strategy for Prashant Kishore election plan which was misunderstood by BJP strategist, as claims by some leaders.

So vote percentages come down with reference to last assembly elections. If it votes may be divided among all parties then BJP had to be winner in all ways. According to data of election commission of India, in West Bengal elections congress got only 2.93 % votes, as CPI & CPI(M) got 4.93% votes only .Surprisingly AIMIM of Md Owaisi party only got 0.02% votes as oldest party of West Bengal AIFB got 0.53 % votes. So we can understand the politics of Muslim Votes to TMC as whole.BJP didn’t got Muslim votes but TMC got huge numbers of Hindu votes too more than 11 %.This equations & factors are also matter of concern for all parties who believe in united India. So we can say polarization of votes not worked for BJP.

According to BJP’s inside sources, Due to overall command with one point power centre was also a main reason for defeat for BJP.NO one had dares to intervene in his so called policy & strategy. Due to his terror, No one was given proper due & honor for their contributions to the all active workers since 20-30 years in the state. Even the advises, tips of  National president JP Nadda, State in-charge General secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, State President Dilip Ghosh, Shubhendu Adhikari, Mukul Rai  like many leaders were kept aside & not honored. Most of them were not properly listened &  also sidelined. Apart from this, many such mistakes with poor communications & coordination in party are said to be the reasons of defeat for BJP in West Bengal.

Apart from that some more reasons are to be analyzed like Delhi elections, no projection of CM ,no more effects of Heavyweight campaigning, resentments in dedicated cadres workers, gathering of more outside leaders ,not proper system to understand the silent voters  are said to be  reasons for defeat of BJP in Bengal.

If we see with these reasons, we can say that BJP had many state leaders to project as CM face.BJP should more focus on local leaders but not outsiders from TMC as they were most were rejected leaders of TMC. So, we can see the result most of the ex TMC leaders lost their seats. Of more than 100 ex TMC leaders ,4-5 only won like Shuvendu Adhikari ,Mukul Roy & others.

For the upcoming elections, BJP will have to amend many changes in its strategies to save the party’s honor. In 2022 there will be assembly elections in eight states, including Jammu and Kashmir. These states are Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, as gor Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat are included.

BJP’s election management in Assam and Puducherry was better than Bengal’s in many respects. The contribution of Minister Hemant Vishwa Sarma can be described as amazing. Hemanta’s style of election management is appreciated by Prime Minister Narendra Bhai Modi as well many times. Likewise, many central leaders also contributed there. The polarization effect that did not work in Bengal, it worked in Assam. The BJP got 33.4 percent votes in Assam while 13.66 percent in Puducherry which is also historic. Puducherry is a new and special gift for BJP. In the coming days, there will be a golden opportunity for the BJP in Tamil Nadu and Kerala to prove them. The BJP has performed better in Tamil Nadu, while the pro-AIADMK lost power. In Tamilnadu Ms Vanathi Srinivasan created a record to defeat her rival famous cine start Kamal Hassan with nearly 200 votes. Ms Srinivasan is the National President of BJP Mahila Morcha. This is called historic victory of BJP in Tamilnadu. BJP’s vote percentage has increased significantly in Kerala, but relatively no seats have been received. BJP has got 11.30 percent votes in Kerala. This is also a new historical record.

If we look at the election analysis of these five states, in all the states the BJP was the focal point in every way. In the current situation, a new equation has been created in the country that is BJP versus all parties. The worst has happened to the Congress as the party which was centre of attraction for everyone is now out of focus. According to the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Bhai Modi, the country has started getting freedom from the Congress with most popular slogan-“Congress Mukt Bharat”.

It seems India will soon be free of Congress, but the BJP will also have to make many changes in its strategies. Otherwise, BJP will face many challenges in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well as the Vidhan Sabha elections of 7 states to be held in 2022.

*Kumar Rakesh