Poonam Sharma
Politics in West Bengal has always been a game of numbers, but the latest figures emerging from the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) suggest that the arithmetic of power is undergoing a seismic shift. For years, the opposition has alleged the existence of “scientific rigging” and “ghost voters.” Now, as the ECI’s draft rolls hit the table, those allegations are finding a statistical backbone that could potentially upend the Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) dominance.
The Math of Deletion
The numbers are staggering. Out of a total electorate of approximately 7.66 crore, over 58 lakh names have been marked for deletion in the first phase. The breakdown is a grim reality check for any political manager: 24 lakh deceased, 12 lakh missing, and nearly 20 lakh shifted or duplicate.
But the “shocker,” as many are calling it, doesn’t end there. Special Reviewer Subrata Gupta has flagged over 1.34 crore entries as “suspicious” or “logically discrepant.” Reports from major outlets like The Times of India suggest the total number of flagged voters could even reach 1.7 crore. If even a fraction of these names—roughly 1.25 crore—are permanently purged, the 10% margin that separated the TMC and BJP in the last assembly election could evaporate.
The Urban Fortress Under Siege
For the TMC, the biggest concern lies in its urban strongholds. Cities like Kolkata were once considered impregnable fortresses for Mamata Banerjee. However, the SIR report shows that in constituencies like Jorasanko and Chowringhee, nearly one in every three or five voters is being axed.
The narrative on the ground suggests a shift in the “fear factor.” Traditionally, it was whispered that “local boys” or TMC workers would visit apartments and housing societies, subtly (or not so subtly) suggesting that residents stay home while their votes were “taken care of.” This cycle of intimidation often relied on the distance and vulnerability of residents in large high-rises.
The Election Commission has now played a masterstroke: booths inside housing complexes. By bringing the polling station to the ground floor of an apartment building, the ECI is effectively neutralizing the gate-keeping power of local strongmen. If the urban middle class and the “silent voters” in these apartments can vote without crossing the street or facing a “neighborhood committee,” the results in Kolkata and its suburbs could be reversed overnight.
The “Big Brother” Play
The phrase “Didi’s game is over” is gaining traction among analysts who see the ECI’s current rigor as a sign of “Big Brother” (the Central Government/ECI) taking the field. The removal of over 50 lakh voters is not just a clerical cleanup; it is the dismantling of a legacy infrastructure that dated back to the Jyoti Basu era—a system of “fixed” voters that the TMC inherited and perfected.
If Mamata Banerjee loses a chunk of her 2.74 crore vote base due to the removal of “suspicious” entries, the road to Nabanna in 2026 becomes a steep uphill climb. In Bengal, where the “shocker” often comes from the ballot box, the ECI has just delivered a pre-poll shock that has left the ruling camp looking “sour.”
