US Supreme Court ruled on Trump tariffs may cut duties on Indian goods to 10–13.5%
By Anjali Sharma
WASHINGTON – US Supreme Court decision on Saturday halting President Donald Trump’s emergency tariff powers could lower effective duties on Indian goods and boost exports in sectors such as textiles and pharmaceuticals, to 10-13.5% while reshaping the terms of an interim trade deal between the two countries, analysts stated.
Trump announced a new 10% baseline global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, applying temporarily to trading partners including India while negotiations continue within hours of the Supreme Court ruling, which struck down most of Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as unconstitutional.
Trade analysts believed this will give a temporary bump to Indian exports to the US which in calendar year 2025 had stood at USD 103.82 billion.
According to US government statistics India’s exports to the US have doubled over the last five years, widening the trade balance in India’s favour.
The commerce ministry officials said on condition of anonymity that the legal basis for the 18% reciprocal rate is weakened.
India could instead face the newly announced 10% global tariff layered on top of the US most-favored-nation rate of roughly 3.5% on many goods, implying an effective rate of about 13.5% unless negotiators revise the terms, analysts said.
Prof Biswajit Dhar, former WTO chair at Indian Institute of Foreign Trade said “Goods exports from India will attract between 10-13.5% Duty with an average of 12-12.5%. However, the larger question that needs to be resolved is will India and US have to sit down together again to rework parts of the trade deal”.
US Court’s decision left intact Washington’s ability to impose narrower tariffs under other laws, including Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act on national security grounds and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 addressing unfair trade practices.
The commerce ministry officials pointed out ”So potentially we could come back to the 18 per cent tariff regime, but such an eventuality seems not likely,”.
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry said on Saturday that it is closely analyzing US Supreme Court judgement on tariffs.
In a communique released on Saturday, the Ministry said, “We have noted the US Supreme Court judgement on tariffs yesterday. President Trump has also addressed a press conference in that regard. Some steps have been announced by the US Administration. We are studying all these developments for their implications.”
Trump insisted that the India-US trade deal remains firmly on track and will not be affected by the Supreme Court’s ruling against his emergency tariffs, asserted that India will continue paying tariffs under the pact while the US will not.
He said, “I think my relationship with India is fantastic, and we’re doing trade with India. India pulled out of Russia. India was getting its oil from Russia. And they pulled way back at my request, because we want to settle that horrible war where 25,000 people are dying every month.”
