GG News Bureau
Mumbai, 28th June: The week ended on a buoyant note for India’s economy, with a string of positive developments triggering cautious optimism across markets. The benchmark BSE Sensex closed at 84,059 — its highest level since October 1 — reflecting improved investor sentiment. The rupee, too, rebounded sharply, appreciating to 85.5 against the US dollar from a recent low of 86.9 recorded on June 19.
Adding to the cheer, global oil prices saw a significant dip. Brent crude slipped to $67 per barrel, down from over $79 at the beginning of the week, reducing pressure on India’s import bill and inflation trajectory.
The revival of the southwest monsoon has further brightened the economic outlook. As of June 27, all-India average rainfall for the month stood 10.3% above the long-period average. This marks a major turnaround from mid-June, when cumulative rainfall was 31% below normal, with 30 of 36 meteorological subdivisions facing serious deficits. The shortfall is now largely restricted to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Marathwada-Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and the Northeast.
Analysts, however, urge caution, noting that the optimism is driven more by relief than robust forward momentum. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel after weeks of escalations — including Iranian missile strikes on a US base in Qatar — has calmed global oil markets. Also easing nerves is the pause in the tariff war launched by US President Donald Trump, who claimed a truce deal with China. Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs on India and other nations are on hold, but the grace period ends on July 9.
Economists emphasize the need for India to shift its focus to medium-term priorities. That includes ensuring macroeconomic stability to buffer against external shocks, improving ease of doing business, and capitalizing on opportunities from shifting global supply chains under the “China-plus-one” strategy.
While India has shown notable resilience — clocking the highest GDP growth among major economies amid global turbulence — experts warn that short-term wins won’t be enough. The challenge lies in delivering sustained growth that meets the aspirations of India’s youth-heavy population.
As geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties remain fluid, the coming months will test India’s policy framework and its readiness to pursue long-term reforms.
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