Putin declares victory in the Ukraine war ahead of May 9 celebrations

*Paromita Das

The Russian government has consistently referred to its conflict with Ukraine as a “special military operation.”

However, Western officials have warned that Russia may officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9, 2022, more than two months after Russia first invaded.

Ukrainians are also concerned that Russia will escalate its attacks on Ukraine on May 9, the anniversary of the Soviet victory over the Nazis in World War II.

The declaration of war by Russia would represent a significant shift in how Russian President Vladimir Putin and his colleagues publicly address the conflict. We asked international relations expert Michael Allen five questions about what a formal declaration of war would imply and why it matters.

What is the significance of May 9

In Russia, May 9 is known as Victory Day, and it commemorates Nazi Germany’s formal surrender in 1945.

While Victory Day celebrations in Russia date back to the 1960s, Putin has transformed the event into an elaborate display of military troops and vehicles on parade, as well as military aircraft flybys broadcast live to millions of Russians.

On Victory Day, why would Putin declare war?

One key reason Putin may declare war on Victory Day is that he has misled the Russian military and people about the nature of the conflict. Putin has incorrectly claimed that Nazis rule Ukraine and that Russia is intervening to “denazify” the country by deposing them.

This annual celebration is now used to persuade Russians that the high costs of war – both financial and in terms of lives lost – are justified.

Second, US officials believe Putin intended to announce victory in Ukraine on Victory Day in 2022.
However, the Russian military has underperformed and has failed to meet expectations of quickly capturing Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Instead, Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia will highlight the besieged eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol as part of Victory Day celebrations.

Instead of being confronted with Russian military setbacks, Putin could use Victory Day as a call to arms, potentially rallying the Russian people to support a larger, longer-lasting war.

Isn’t Russia’s invasion a war already?

War is defined differently by conflict scholars, but most definitions would classify the current Ukrainian conflict as a war.
One of the more widely used definitions of war comes from the Correlates of War project, which is led by scholars in the United States and aims to identify and quantify various types of conflict.

A war between countries is defined by this project as a conflict that “must involve sustained combat, involving organised armed forces, and resulting in at least 1,000 battle-related combatant fatalities within a twelve-month period.” It must also face effective opposition from both sides.

This definition excludes sporadic fighting, low-intensity conflict, and one-sided government massacres, for example – but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict fits this technical definition.

Russia has yet to declare the conflict a war.

Why hasn’t Russia declared war already?

A declaration of war establishes a legally defined conflict.

Few countries have ever declared war legally. The United States, for example, has fought 13 wars since 1816, but only four of those conflicts were declared by Congress.

For a variety of reasons, countries avoid declaring war. Domestically, populations are less likely to support a conflict if it is likely to be costly and result in a large number of soldiers and civilians being killed.

People are more likely to support a conflict if they perceive it to be limited and brief.
According to research, public support does depend on how expensive the war appears to be – though this is less true for people who are nationalistic and would support a war under any circumstances.

A Russian admission that it is in a formal state of war could lead to increased international scrutiny. Some international treaties and organizations have attempted to define whether a war is legal or illegal.

Engaging in a war of aggression against a sovereign country is one of the more serious crimes a country can commit under international law. Both the United Nations Charter and the International Criminal Court seek to criminalise and punish wars of aggression – that is, conflicts that are not justified by self-defense.

A formal war would also make it more difficult for Russia’s supporters, such as China, to deny that Russia has invaded and is at war with Ukraine. Other countries may find it more difficult to maintain their neutrality.

What happens if Russia declares war?

If the Ukraine conflict becomes an official war rather than a special military operation, Putin will be able to justify expanding conscription and instituting a draught of Russians into the military.

As of early April, Russia was facing severe personnel losses in the form of soldier fatalities, with an estimated 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers or more killed.
Russia has lost more soldiers in the Ukraine war in less than three months than it did in the 10-year Afghanistan war that began in 1979.

Russia’s human and material losses have been so severe that Putin has been forced to scale back this year’s Victory Day celebrations with fewer military vehicles.

Russia is also having difficulty obtaining additional financial resources as well as soldiers. It has even relied on foreign fighters to keep the conflict in Ukraine going.

Recruiting Russian men could help fill this critical military personnel shortage during the Ukraine war.
A declaration of war would allow Russia to mobilize its people to fight a longer war, which Putin had assumed he would have won by now. A declaration of war would aid Putin in prolonging an already costly conflict.