Pakistan’s Strategic Threat to the Gulf: A Ticking Time Bomb Inside the House

Paromita Das
GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 4th June:  The Gulf monarchies—once seen as bastions of conservative Islamic order—are undergoing one of the most transformative periods in their modern histories. Under leaders like Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Emir of Qatar, the Gulf is investing in post-oil economies, digital innovation, women’s empowerment, and tourism diversification. Yet, as the region seeks to modernize and integrate into a globalized world, an insidious threat brews from a long-time ally: Pakistan.

Far from being a passive bystander, Pakistan is evolving into a destabilizing actor in the Middle East. Motivated by desperation, ideological rigidity, and geopolitical ambition, Islamabad views the Gulf’s modernization not as progress, but as betrayal—a deviation from its own purist, hardline vision of “true Islam.” And more dangerously, it may be positioning itself to disrupt this modernizing wave from within, leveraging both its vast diaspora in the Gulf and its history of exporting extremism.

A Divergence of Paths: Modernization vs. Radicalization

The cultural chasm between the Gulf states and Pakistan is growing. Where Gulf monarchies are promoting moderate Islam, economic liberalization, and international partnerships, Pakistan remains ideologically frozen. It continues to propagate a Wahhabi-influenced theology through its madrasas, politicize religion domestically, and use Islamist extremism as an unofficial tool of foreign policy—particularly in Kashmir and Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s disdain for Gulf reforms is not merely religious—it is strategic. Islamabad has historically relied on Gulf states for financial bailouts and labor opportunities. But as these monarchies pivot away from dependency models and prioritize skilled migration and economic self-reliance, Pakistan is being cut off. The shift has triggered resentment and a potential backlash from a state that has little left to lose and much to gain from regional upheaval.

Pakistan’s Strategic Toolkit: Diaspora and Destabilization

One of the most significant yet under-examined threats lies in the Pakistani diaspora. More than 5.5 million Pakistanis reside across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. While many contribute economically and remain peaceful, the ideological risks they pose cannot be ignored.

Subversion through Ideology: Pakistani clerics, heavily influenced by Deobandi and Salafi teachings, often promote values that run counter to the inclusive religious messaging now seen in the Gulf. Extremist preachers, some educated in Pakistan and funded through opaque charitable networks, have quietly embedded themselves in Gulf societies.

Radicalization potential: According to Gulf security officials, hundreds of Pakistanis have been deported in recent years for suspected terror affiliations. In Saudi Arabia alone, Pakistani nationals accounted for over 30% of all terror-related arrests in certain years, according to leaked interior ministry data.

Digital recruitment and unrest: With high internet penetration in Gulf countries, Pakistan-based radical organizations are increasingly leveraging social media to stoke anti-government sentiments among Gulf youth, particularly foreign workers. This creates a volatile mix—economic frustration and religious radicalism—primed for political agitation.

Ideological Alignment with Turkey and China

Pakistan is not operating in isolation. Increasingly, it finds ideological kinship with Turkish neo-Ottoman ambitions and strategic alignment with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. A weakened Gulf bloc—less aligned with Western powers, less economically stable—suits all three.

Turkey, under President Erdoğan, has positioned itself as a rival to Saudi leadership in the Muslim world. Ankara has backed Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, and Islamabad shares this ideological sympathy.

China, for its part, seeks regional footholds and ports—like Gwadar in Pakistan or potentially weakened Gulf states—while being indifferent to local political systems. Islamabad’s growing dependency on Beijing could translate into geopolitical risk for Gulf monarchies tied to the West.

Criminal Syndicates and Terror Financiers

Pakistan’s instability has not only exported terror, but also crime. Gulf authorities have consistently arrested Pakistanis involved in smuggling heroin, methamphetamines, and counterfeit goods—activities often linked to militant financing networks.

In 2023 alone, over 1,200 Pakistani nationals were arrested across the GCC for drug trafficking, according to Interpol Gulf data. These criminal operations fund networks that blur the line between terrorism and organized crime, corroding both societal trust and national security.

Strategic Intent, Not Just Speculation

This is not fear-mongering—it’s strategic behavior. Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex, historically linked to groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and the Haqqani network, has perfected the art of weaponizing non-state actors. If Pakistan believes it can manipulate unrest in the Gulf to extract concessions or reassert ideological leadership, it will act.

Gulf governments cannot afford to ignore this threat. The internal collapse of even one monarchy—Bahrain, for instance—could send shockwaves through the entire region, inviting foreign intervention, sectarian warfare, or economic ruin.

Urgent Containment Required

Pakistan is no longer merely a struggling ally—it has become a strategic liability for the Gulf. Ideologically rigid, economically fractured, and geopolitically opportunistic, Pakistan’s behavior represents a multidimensional threat: from radicalism to terrorism, and from criminal subversion to ideological warfare.

The Gulf monarchies must act swiftly:

• Restrict immigration from radicalized regions, especially among low-skilled male laborers.
• Enhance intelligence sharing across GCC states, focusing on diaspora monitoring.
• Deport and blacklist radical clerics, even if politically sensitive.
• Cut financial aid to Pakistani institutions linked to extremism.

Ultimately, this is not just about protecting monarchies—it’s about safeguarding the future of modern, moderate Islam in the 21st century. The question is no longer if Pakistan will attempt to disrupt the Gulf from within. The question is: will the Gulf act in time to stop it?