Pakistan in Freefall: Cracks, Chaos, and India’s Calculated Calm

Poonam Sharma
It was once celebrated as a state with strategic depth secured by its military. Today, Pakistan is hanging by a thread in its very implosion. The pointers are clear. From the depressed morale of its armed forces to Taliban uprisings in its tribal areas, and from mass unrest triggered by inflation to political vacuums at the leadership levels—Pakistan is not waging a war against India; it is waging war against itself.

What is more telling is India’s silence. Historically, even slight provocations invited firm diplomatic or military pushbacks. But today, even with internal provocations from Pakistan and the odd posturing, New Delhi remains unshaken—nearly observant, as if expecting gravity to take its course.

1. Pakistan’s Fragile Spine: Army Losing Its Grip

Previously, the Pakistani Army was its most powerful institution—dreaded within, monitored by neighbors, and supported by foreign assistance. Yet during the last year, fissures have increased. The previously iron-fisted commanders are confronted with resistance not from outside enemies, but from within their cities and cantonments.

Accounts of troops not wanting to fight in Baluchistan or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has made several ambushes, are accumulating. Camps have been overran. Gun and food storages have been plundered. Morale has sunk so low that even local police are now attacked with impunity.

The iconic slogan “Pakistan Army Zindabad” is now a hush. Now, the same citizens who used to rejoice at “military victories” in school textbooks are hurling stones at military vehicles. A banana hurled at a parade once initiated a diplomatic stand-off; now, it reflects how terribly the uniformed class has lost its sheen.

2. Economic Collapse Meets Political Paralysis

The economy of Pakistan is in ruins. Inflation has gone through the roof, and the typical household cannot even meet basic commodity needs like wheat, onions, and fuel. The political elite carries on in its walled enclaves, out of touch with the suffering of common Pakistanis, whose children now line up not for school but for free food.

Politicians like Shehbaz Sharif, Bilawal Bhutto, or Imran Khan have all lost trust. The street screams revolution, but no leader is there to lead it. The civilian governments have become rubber stamps, uttering rhetoric against India from time to time to divert attention away from failure at home.

While that is happening, Islamabad is seeing diplomatic paralysis. The formerly influential closeness to China has turned transactional, with Beijing investing only in those projects that directly serve its Belt and Road initiative. Even America is no longer interested in making Pakistan a reliable ally, instead opting to engage directly with India, Bangladesh, and even Nepal.

3. Taliban’s Return and the Baloch Revolt: Two Fronts, One State

Pakistan is currently confronting an insurgency similar to Afghanistan before 2001. The Taliban has not only come back to Waziristan and Khyber areas—they are establishing parallel administrative institutions. They now enforce their own interpretation of Sharia, extort taxes, and even operate local dispute resolution agencies.

In Baluchistan, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is no longer a radical militant organization. It is recruiting frustrated youth, university dropouts, and even former paramilitary officers. In Gwadar and Quetta cities, local communities now publicly discuss “freedom” and “independence” openly without the fear of state monitoring.

Indian security agencies, officially tight-lipped, are reportedly keeping a close eye on events. European parliaments and UN lobbies provide space for the Baloch diaspora, with growing references to Pakistan’s human rights violations.

4. India’s Strategic Silence: Patience as Policy

Interestingly, India hasn’t taken the bait. No border tension, no war of words, not even a trenchant diplomatic assault. It’s as if India has chosen to allow Pakistan to stew in its own contradictions.

New Delhi appears to have embraced a new doctrine: strategic patience. The principle is straightforward—don’t stop your adversary when he is getting it wrong.

As Pakistan burns its own provinces, India is busy expanding its naval and air bases in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. Increased cooperation with Gulf countries, more development in Chabahar, and closer relations with the Quad are in the air. While Pakistan struggles to keep the lights on in its foreign embassies.

5. China’s Growing Disinterest: The Dragon Backs Away

China’s investments in Pakistan once represented an unbreakable “iron brotherhood.” Now, Chinese engineers are being evacuated from Baluchistan, and a number of CPEC projects are stopped because of unpaid dues and security issues.

What will haunt Beijing most is that its cyber surveillance platform in Pakistan has begun to be utilized by internal power blocs against one another. Military intelligence against ISI. Army against the Taliban. Central government against provincial warlords. Even Chinese cargo vessels are now opting for Sri Lankan or Indian docking facilities over Gwadar.

While the world was bracing for a two-front war against China and Pakistan, what is happening is much more bizarre: China is protecting its investments and drifting away gradually, while Pakistan is flailing in the dark.

6. Red Corridor Cleared, India’s Borders More Secure

Domestically, India has eliminated Naxal terror, a success which is seldom recognized internationally but vital in terms of domestic security. On Home Minister Amit Shah’s watch, the so-called Red Corridor is now limited to periodic ambushes. Contrast this with Pakistan, where new red corridors are opening up—from Karachi to Khyber.

This enables India to re-deploy forces, construct high-speed strategic highways, add surveillance domes, and station advanced UAV systems. For the first time in decades, the Indian Army is not reactive; it’s predictive.

7. What Next: Will Baluchistan Break Free?

Though complete secession is a tall request, the concept is no longer far-fetched. The world is gradually accepting Baloch voices. The following year could be the turning point. U.S. elections, China’s leadership shuffles, and growing anti-state feelings in Sindh and Punjab may spark an irreversible domino.

Will the map of Pakistan be intact in five years’ time? Perhaps not. But this much is certain: the fault lines are deepening.

 A State Fighting Itself

Pakistan is not being unraveled by an external conflict. It’s being unraveled by internal contradictions—an oversized army, a forgotten people, an irresponsible economy, and an unhealthy marriage with extremism. India, China, and the West are not coming in because they don’t have to. The Pakistani state is burying itself, one dysfunctional province at a time.

In this unfolding geopolitical chessboard, India is not pursuing victory. It is waiting for Pakistan to admit defeat—on its own terms, in its own backyard.