NDA to Witness Seat Decline in Bihar Lok Sabha Poll? Key Findings from India Today Poll

GG News Bureau
Patna, 9th Feb. India Today’s latest Mood of the Nation opinion poll suggests that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) might witness a decline in seats in the Bihar Lok Sabha election, with a projected win of 32 out of 40 seats.

The poll indicates that the INDIA bloc, comprising the Congress, RJD led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, and Left parties, is expected to augment its tally, potentially securing eight seats if voting were held in January. Conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024, the survey encompasses responses from 35,801 respondents across all Lok Sabha constituencies.

However, it’s crucial to note that the poll comes with a disclaimer acknowledging the inherent uncertainties associated with opinion polls. It was conducted before recent political developments and changes in alliance dynamics, particularly in Bihar.

The survey doesn’t account for JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar’s departure from the Mahagathbandhan and subsequent return to the NDA fold. In the 2019 elections, the BJP, JD(U), and undivided Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) formed an alliance, clinching a significant victory with 39 out of 40 seats. The BJP secured 17 seats, JD(U) 16, and LJP six seats, significantly impacting the Opposition.

Although the NDA’s projected vote share may experience a slight drop to 52% from the 53% it garnered in 2019, the Opposition bloc is anticipated to gain ground, potentially witnessing a seven-percentage point increase in vote share from the previous election.

Nitish Kumar’s recent political maneuver, marking his fourth change in alliance in about eight years, is not expected to substantially alter the political landscape in Bihar.

The NDA will need to navigate alliance complexities, accommodating several smaller parties during seat-sharing negotiations. With the LJP divided into factions and other parties like the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal aligning with the BJP, alliance dynamics are poised for intricacies.

As the Bihar Lok Sabha election draws near, political observers are keenly watching how alliances evolve and influence electoral outcomes, particularly in light of recent political realignments.