By Anjali Sharma
WASHINGTON – Goldman Sachs in its revised outlook on Thursday lowered India’s real GDP growth projection marginally by 0.1 percentage pointed for calendar year 2025 to 6.5% and by 0.2 percentage point for 2026 to 6.4% year-on-year.
Goldman Sachs lowered India’s real GDP after the 25% reciprocal tariff imposed on Indian goods by US President Donald Trump.
The report added that “in our view, some of these tariffs are likely to be negotiated lower over time, and further downside risk to the growth trajectory mainly emanates from the uncertainty channel.”
It noted that inflation is going down, and revised India’s inflation forecasts lower by 0.2 percentage points for both calendar year 2025 and fiscal year 2026, now sitting at 3.0% year-on-year.
The report said the cooling prices are largely attributed to softening vegetable costs, but warns that these projections lie in the left tail of India’s historical inflation distribution, pointing out that such low levels are rare and could be vulnerable to unexpected shocks.
Morgan Stanley said India is set to play a bigger role in the global economy over the coming decades.
With the expectation of India’s credit to GDP rising and manufacturing gaining a bigger share in GDP, the country’s role in the global economy will significantly go up, the report said.
In a separate development, Deloitte India also forecast India’s GDP growth at 6.4–6.7% for FY 2025-26, slightly lower than the 6.5% recorded in 2024-25, citing strong domestic fundamentals, easing inflation, and expanding global trade opportunities.
