Poonam Sharma
In the ever-changing world of international politics, South Asia has once again become a battleground for vying powers. Over the past decades, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been blamed for engineering political upheavals across the globe—sometimes by catapulting leaders to heroic heights, sometimes by pushing them to obsolescence. From Afghan warlords to Saddam Hussein, from military intervention in the Middle East to clandestine operations in Latin America, the CIA has been termed an architect and destroyer of nations. Whispers now indicate that the agency’s focus has shifted once again with greater ferocity to India.
India, being unlike small states, cannot be easily manipulated. It is too big, too complex, and too embedded in its civilizational culture. But the very size of its democracy, its increasing global clout, and its sensitive domestic balances make it an attractive target for subtle influence. Beneath the news of progress, economic advancement, and diplomatic successes, a covert war can be taking place—a war in which India’s democratic determination is contrasted with foreign manipulation.
Layers of Power and the CIA’s Hand
Washington’s very nature of power has seldom lain exclusively in the hands of the elected. Presidents can set the tone, but intelligence agencies and entrenched establishments tend to dictate strategy. In Trump’s time, even with his outside-the-box style, intelligence agencies went on carrying out their traditional mission: preserving American hegemony and containing ascendant powers such as China, Russia, and increasingly India.
India’s path under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has defied the Western-centric order paradigm. His administration’s assertiveness—from resisting on issues of national security to taking a voice for the Global South—has discomfited those used to obedient partners. Stories and analysis suggest that the CIA, sensing India’s increasing independence, is resetting its playbook: spreading disarray, shaping perceptions, and testing vulnerabilities within India’s political environment.
Modi, the BJP, and Internal Fault Lines
No politician in post-independence India has exerted so long-enduring control as Narendra Modi. His rule over a period of more than a decade has remade India’s politics and projected the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a preeminent party. But preeminence also carries susceptibility. On the inside, it is said, foreign powers are attempting to avail themselves of the fissures within the BJP and its ideologically parental Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
CIA-linked operations, it is alleged, have attempted to create divisions among BJP MPs and sow mistrust within the RSS cadre. The objective is clear: destabilize Modi’s authority and introduce confusion at the very heart of India’s governance. Some even suggest that the agency has extended feelers to ambitious politicians within India’s ruling coalition, promising elevation if they play along with a larger geopolitical script.
Such tactics are hardly new. India has faced similar pressures in the past—during the Cold War, when the CIA was suspected of involvement in domestic politics under leaders like Indira Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri. But the scale and brazenness of contemporary efforts, if true, reflect a new urgency: the recognition that India’s rise could shift the balance of global power in ways unfavorable to Washington’s hegemony.
South Asia in the Crosshairs
The CIA’s renewed activism in India must be viewed within context. South Asia is still a turbulent theatre. Instability and manipulation are old tales in Pakistan. Politics in Bangladesh is commonly said to bear the hallmark of outside influence. Afghanistan is still staggering from the burden of U.S. interventions, and Nepal and Sri Lanka are still susceptible to great-power rivalries.
India, being the anchor of the subcontinent, becomes the ultimate prize by default. If New Delhi resists realignment, Washington stands to lose strategic leverage not only in South Asia, but throughout the Indo-Pacific. China’s aggressive expansion and Russia’s long-standing alignment with India add complications. For the CIA, shattering India’s stability becomes an option no less, but a necessity to ensure U.S. supremacy.
Cultural Resilience vs. Covert Disruption
But India is more than a political state. It’s a civilization with centuries of staying power. Where coups and interventions have rapidly changed governments in other countries, India’s political tradition is suffused with democratic legitimacy and cultural continuity. Coups may destabilize, but the roots of the system tend to reestablish balance.
It is here that the real struggle is. Above politics, India has to defend itself against the destruction of social harmony, the emergence of divisive rage, and the diffusion of suspicion. Covert operations flourish not when a society is united in purpose, but when it is torn from within.
Here is the pressing need for India’s leaders, educators, and civil society to invest in peace education, anger management, and values of sacrifice and oneness. A culture that is too materialistic and which views politics as only a means of reaching the ladder of power or money becomes fertile breeding ground for manipulation from outside. But a culture based on collective responsibility and resilience can weather even the most intense external pressures.
The Next 12 Months: A Critical Test
If rumors are to be taken seriously, the coming year will be critical. The CIA can escalate attempts to destabilize the Modi administration via political machinations, economic sabotage, and information warfare. Already, foreign media tends to portray India in binary terms—either as an ascendant superpower or as an imperiled democracy. Such characterizations, amplified strategically, can affect investor sentiment, diplomatic reputations, and even national morale.
For the BJP and Modi, the task will be double: retaining governance stability while neutralizing subtle disruptions. For India as a nation, the larger task will be to uphold unity across political, religious, and cultural divides, denying space to those who would endeavor to divide.
Beyond Covert Wars
The CIA shadow over South Asia has long been a fact, but the stakes now are greater than ever before. India is at the crossroads—its choices determining not only its own fate, but also that of the global balance. If rumors of covert action are true, then the reaction cannot be political counter-reaction. It has to be societal: fostering resilience, educating peace, practicing sacrifice, and inculcating values that render manipulation impossible.
Ultimately, India’s real strength will not be in the way that it deals with foreign encroachment, but the way in which it fails to be divided within. In that is the best protection against any shadow war.
