By Dr. Kumar Rakesh
This Bihar election didn’t exactly spring a surprise. Anyone watching the ground mood closely could sense where it was heading. I had said on multiple TV debates that the NDA would come back—and my reasoning was simple: women voters had already made up their minds. Their quiet conviction has once again shaped the state’s political destiny.
And now, as trends show the NDA leading on more than 200 seats, that instinct stands confirmed.
Interestingly, BJP senior leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah had also publicly predicted that the NDA would cross 160 seats. That target has now been comfortably achieved. His confidence, in fact, reminded me of his early election strategies in Uttar Pradesh, when under his leadership the BJP broke every previous record in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha. Bihar today seems to echo that same political precision.
NDA Ahead, But the Deeper Story Lies Beneath
The NDA’s lead may look like a simple landslide, but Bihar’s political story this time is not just about numbers. It is about trust, routine, and a desire for predictable governance.
Across districts, what voters seemed to express was a preference for continuity over experimentation. And nowhere was this more visible than among women voters. They may not dominate rallies or TV discussions, but they dominate the ground reality.
Their support has been steady, quiet—and decisive.
BJP’s Emergence: A New Balance of Power
One of the most defining shifts in this election is the BJP emerging as the single-largest party in Bihar for the first time. Leading on 96 seats, the party has rewritten its own political story in the state.
For years, the BJP willingly played the junior partner to Nitish Kumar. This mandate changes that dynamic. The party’s growth has been slow, consistent, and intentional. Today’s numbers show that a new political architecture is taking shape—one where the BJP is no longer just “supporting” the coalition but driving it.
Nitish Kumar Performs Well — But the Landscape Has Moved
Nitish Kumar’s JDU has staged a strong recovery from its 2020 low of 43 seats. Leading on 84 seats now, the party has proven that Nitish’s brand of governance still resonates, especially among women and older voters.
But even with this revival, the JDU is no longer the senior partner in the alliance. The ground has shifted beneath its feet. That doesn’t erase Nitish Kumar’s relevance, but it does alter the internal balance within the NDA in a way Bihar hasn’t seen before.
Women Voters: The Heartbeat of This Mandate
To truly understand this election, one must understand the women of Bihar. Their rising turnout has reshaped the state’s politics more decisively than any caste bloc or youth wave.
Welfare schemes, household security, and predictable benefits have created a quiet reassurance. For many women, voting for the NDA wasn’t an ideological choice—it was a practical one rooted in lived experience.
Their ballots became the most influential force of this mandate.
Opposition’s Disconnect: No Message, No Momentum
The Mahagathbandhan didn’t simply lose seats; it lost the plot. Its campaign lacked clarity, direction, and emotional connect. At a time when voters sought stability, the opposition offered uncertainty.
This election isn’t a rejection of the opposition—it is a reminder that Bihar’s voters expect more than recycled slogans.
A Familiar Mandate with Unmistakable Signs of Change
Yes, the NDA returning to power feels familiar. But everything beneath that headline is changing—the BJP’s rise, the JDU’s shifting position, the assertive role of women voters, and the new confidence seen among alliance leaders.
Amit Shah’s early prediction has come true, just as his strategies have reshaped electoral outcomes in the past. Bihar now reflects that same strategic clarity and silent voter consolidation.
This verdict is not just another round of government formation.
It is Bihar signalling that while it values stability, it is also ready for a new political balance—one that has already begun taking shape in this elec
Comments are closed.