Bihar 2025: Nitish Kumar’s Final Showdown

Paromita Das

New Delhi, 11th October: The air in Bihar feels different this election season — thick with urgency, ambition, and the unmistakable scent of political reckoning. Streets once buzzing with festive chatter now echo with campaign slogans, while every conversation at roadside tea stalls drips with speculation about shifting alliances and fading loyalties. Billboards flicker with smiling faces that mask fierce rivalries, and television debates rage deep into the night, dissecting every speech and every silence. The countdown to Bihar’s 2025 election isn’t just a democratic exercise — it’s a power duel laced with revenge, redemption, and the relentless hunger to rule.

And at the heart of this charged political theatre stands Nitish Kumar — the man who defined Bihar’s politics for two decades and whose shadow still looms over its future. Once the architect of Bihar’s turnaround and hailed as “Sushasan Babu,” Nitish now finds himself in the twilight of his career, fighting to prove that he remains the state’s ultimate kingmaker — or perhaps, its forgotten monarch.

The Long Reign of a Reluctant King

Nitish Kumar’s career reads like a saga of calculated endurance. For nearly twenty years, he has shaped Bihar’s politics with a blend of pragmatism, caste arithmetic, and alliance acrobatics. His ability to turn every political storm into an opportunity turned him into both king and kingmaker — first helping the BJP ascend in 2005, then scripting a comeback for the RJD alliance in 2015, and finally returning to help the NDA regain power in 2020.

His strength lies in a finely calibrated support base comprising Kurmi-Koeri voters, EBCs, Mahadalits, and women — groups that have long anchored his electoral machinery. These segments still remember Nitish’s early years of governance when roads brightened, lawlessness declined, and Bihar began to dream again.

A Legacy Defined by Welfare

If numbers alone could narrate legacy, Nitish Kumar’s record would stand tall. His governance has leaned heavily on social welfare — empowering women, uplifting the backward classes, and expanding opportunities at the grassroots. From the Mukhyamantri Cycle Yojana to empowering rural women through Jeevika Didis, these schemes redefined Bihar’s social participation.

Now, in his political “final innings,” Nitish has unleashed another wave of populist promises — financial aid for women entrepreneurs, allowances for the unemployed, pensions for the elderly, and wage hikes for grassroots workers. It’s both a welfare blitz and a farewell gift — an attempt to script one last victory before stepping off the stage.

The Slipping Grip on Power

But behind the grand welfare curtain lies a sobering reality. Nitish’s approval ratings have plunged from 37% in 2020 to under 25% today. His party, the JD(U), which once commanded 115 seats, now struggles to cross 43. The “natural fatigue” of two decades in power is unmistakable, and younger voters, driven by economic aspirations and digital awareness, appear less enchanted by his governance brand.

His repeated alliance flips — twice joining and twice leaving the Mahagathbandhan — have added to the perception of political inconsistency. Critics accuse him of placing power before principle, a charge that dulls his once-sterling image of integrity and stability.

Still Indispensable to the NDA

Yet, paradoxically, Nitish Kumar remains central to the NDA’s Bihar strategy. The BJP, despite its national dominance, lacks a face that resonates with EBCs and other castes — voters Nitish continues to command. Without him, the NDA’s arithmetic looks brittle.

Analysts argue that the JD(U)’s 2020 underperformance was largely due to vote splitting by Chirag Paswan’s LJP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, JD(U)’s strike rate outshone even the BJP’s — a testament to Nitish’s enduring importance. The NDA knows well: winning Bihar without Nitish is a near impossibility.

The New Age Challenge

Across the aisle, Tejashwi Yadav looms large as the youthful challenger. His rhetoric on jobs and migration strikes a chord with Bihar’s restless youth, many of whom feel left behind by Nitish’s developmental story. Yet, Nitish counters this with experience and caste cohesion — two assets that still carry weight in Bihar’s politics.

However, his failure to industrialise Bihar and the chronic outmigration of its workforce remain haunting failures. His popularity among the youth is slipping, even as older voters remain loyal out of habit and gratitude.

Cracks in the Alliance Armor

For the NDA, internal chemistry could prove decisive. The vote transfer between JD(U) and BJP supporters remains uneven, with loyalty often tilting based on local equations. The emergence of Jan Suraj, led by Prashant Kishor, adds a new wildcard. Both allies want dominance within the same coalition, and that rivalry may well determine Bihar’s post-election script.

A Test of Relevance, Not Just Power

This election is less about Nitish Kumar’s victory and more about his relevance. Can a leader who once symbolised Bihar’s revival still reinvent himself in a digitally connected, assertive, youth-driven state? Nitish’s political story is reaching its climax — the question is whether it ends in graceful legacy or stubborn decline.

The X-Factor Still in Motion

For all his vulnerabilities, Nitish Kumar remains the most significant constant in Bihar’s volatile equations. His political footprint, welfare charisma, and caste arithmetic continue to matter in a state where margins are often paper-thin.

Poll strategist Prashant Kishor predicts Nitish may fall to just 25 seats. But seasoned observers know Bihar’s politics rarely obey predictions. Whether he emerges as king, kingmaker, or casualty, Nitish Kumar ensures that no election in Bihar can be written without his name stamped prominently across it.

In the theatre of Bihar 2025 — where every slogan hides strategy and every handshake conceals suspicion — Nitish Kumar still holds the stage. Perhaps diminished, perhaps weary, yet undeniably pivotal — the X-factor that Bihar cannot yet erase.