Bharat’s Geopolitical Leap: Why the World Finally Sees a Major Power

Paromita Das

New Delhi, 2nd December: For most of its modern history, Bharat lived under the weight of a phrase both hopeful and exasperating: a nation of great potential. It was a compliment that implied patience, as if the world expected Bharat to bloom but was never sure when. Yet the newest data from the Lowy Institute’s 2025 Asia Power Index captures a moment when the waiting ends. Bharat has just crossed a decisive threshold with a comprehensive power score above 40, officially entering the ranks of Asia’s major powers, placing just behind the United States and China. This is no symbolic elevation — it is the statistical confirmation of a shift that has been gathering momentum for a decade.

Bharat is no longer standing on the geopolitical sidelines of Asia. It has turned into an active, shaping force in the region’s strategic balance, and most of this transformation flows from the Modi government’s ambition to reposition the country from a cautious “balancing power” to a confident, agenda-setting “leading power.” The transition is neither accidental nor cosmetic but rests on deeper structural reforms, wider diplomatic engagement, and a growing sense of national self-assurance.

Crossing a Threshold: The Weight of a ‘Major Power’ Label

Lowy’s Asia Power Index is arguably the most comprehensive measure of national strength. Given that a ranking which draws from 131 indicators across economy, resilience, military capability, cultural reach, and diplomatic engagement does not hand out praise easily, for Bharat to break through the 40-point barrier and entrench itself firmly in third position-well ahead of middle powers and closing the gap with Japan-is to signal not a momentary rise but a structural shift.

Yet Lowy also has a sobering reminder: Bharat’s “power gap,” or the difference between the strength it possesses and the strength it projects, remains considerable. It acknowledges Bharat’s remarkable rise but underlines the fact that the country’s actual influence still lags behind the potential of its resources. That duality-an accelerating rise accompanied by unrealized capacity-defines Bharat’s present geopolitical identity.

The Economic Turn: When Growth Becomes Strategy

It needs to be said that there can be no power in the twenty-first century without economic momentum, and here Bharat has rewritten the script. A turbulent global climate notwithstanding, Bharat has retained its position as the fastest-growing major economy, clocking around 6.5% growth in FY24/25. The previous year’s 8.2% expansion, driven by manufacturing revival, resilient services, and massive public infrastructure investment, only deepened that shift.

It is a point of optimism with which international institutions, often conservative in their estimates, have aligned. The IMF expects Bharat to maintain growth above 6% for the next two years, while the World Bank ascribes structural durability to its macroeconomic fundamentals. The country’s attainment of more than $3.9 trillion in GDP, which is expected to reach $4 trillion shortly, makes its long-discussed rise to a $5 trillion economy one of timing, not speculation.

Even more telling is investment behaviour. Lowy’s data reveals a quiet but profound realignment: Bharat is now the world’s second-most attractive destination for long-term capital flows after the United States, edging past China for the first time. This suggests not only confidence in Bharat’s economic stability, but also a shifting geopolitical preference among investors seeking a stable, democratic, rules-based Asian market.

Much of this rests on the reforms enacted over the past decade — GST, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, the digital governance revolution through Aadhaar and UPI, and the sweeping expansion of logistics, energy and transportation networks. These are not isolated technocratic improvements; they form the economic spine of Modi’s “leading power” vision.

Hard Power Grows: The Military and the Maritime Moment

It is not economic strength alone that catapults a country to major-power status. The military rankings in the Asia Power Index place Bharat among the top four powers in the region, behind only the giants-the US, China, and Russia. What is striking is not just capability, but perception: Bharat is increasingly seen as a state capable of shaping regional security outcomes.

Long described in academic writing but rarely fully activated by policy, its geography has become a strategic asset. With Bharat sitting astride the sea lanes connecting the Gulf to Southeast Asia and commanding a central position in the Indian Ocean, it has treated its maritime environment less as a backdrop and more as a theatre of influence. Naval modernization, upgraded island infrastructure in the Andaman and Nicobar chain, expanded maritime domain awareness, and deeper cooperation with partners like Japan, France, Australia, and the United States have transformed Bharat’s regional military profile.

The launch of Operation Sindoor in May 2025-which Lowy cited as a marker of operational maturity-further reinforced the impression that Bharat’s military experience is becoming more sophisticated and more relevant to Indo-Pacific stability.

Diplomacy in Motion: The Modi–Jaishankar Era of Multi-Alignment

If military and economic powers are the structure of a rising nation, then its diplomacy is its voice. Bharat’s diplomatic presence has been growing more assertive under Prime Minister Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, openly steering Bharat away from its older doctrines of reserved non-alignment toward a more confident multi-alignment.

The 2025 Index points out increases in Bharat’s diplomatic influence and a steady expansion in cultural presence, partly inspired by new air routes, the growing profile of the diaspora, and wider educational exchanges. It does indicate, though, that the perception of Modi’s leadership has not kept pace. What that implies is that while Bharat is becoming more active, it takes time to build influence-especially in Asia’s crowded geopolitical theatre.

Still, Bharat’s G20 presidency was an unusual chance to see the ability of a pivotal state to bring conflicting powers into one room. The balancing act, working with the US on technology and Indo-Pacific issues while continuing ties with Russia and championing the Global South, reflects a diplomatic model rooted in strategic autonomy rather than bloc politics.

Soft Power and the Digital Signature

Equally, Bharat’s rise is cultural, demographic, and digital. Few countries boast the depth of soft power that Bharat does, from cinema and cuisine to yoga and literature. The diaspora magnifies this reach across continents. Meanwhile, Bharat’s digital public infrastructure, especially UPI and Aadhaar, has emerged as a model for financial inclusion and e-governance for the emerging world.

This mix of culture and technology has conferred on Bharat a unique global identity: modern yet rooted, democratic yet digitally advanced.

The Inevitable Caveat: The Rise Is Real, but So Are the Constraints

Even the most optimistic assessments are not without acknowledgment of Bharat’s challenges. Think tanks like Germany’s SWP bluntly point out shortcomings in governance, state capacity, and inequality. Analysts like Ashley Tellis state that Bharat’s long-term rise rests on a foundation of strengthening institutions, deepening reforms, and rapid modernization of the military. These are not dismissals of Bharat’s rise but reminders that the greatness of a power depends on continuous improvement in the country.

A Power No Longer in Waiting

What has changed today is not just Bharat’s score on an index but the global understanding of Bharat’s place in the world. For the first time, major institutions, independent analysts, and empirical data tell the same story: Bharat is no longer a power of unrealized promise but a central actor in Asia’s evolving order.

What lies ahead will require stamina, transformation, and strategic patience. Yet the transition is inexorable. The time when Bharat was a “potential power” is behind us, and the time when Bharat is an emerging major power — with rising responsibility for shaping regional and global outcomes — is already upon us.