Bharat-China Relations: A Fragile Thaw Amid Persistent Domestic Skepticism

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 20^th Dec. In a significant shift after years of tension, Bharat and China have embarked on cautious diplomatic overtures to repair their strained relationship. The October meeting between Bharatiya Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping marked a pivotal moment, initiating a dialogue after five years of deadlock. However, a new survey titled “Pulse Of The People: State of Bharat-China Relations Survey Report 2024” reveals that while the government pursues engagement, the Bharatiya populace remains deeply skeptical of China’s intentions. This tension between diplomatic gestures and public sentiment encapsulates the complexity of Bharat-China relations in 2024.

The survey, published by the Takshashila Institution, provides a nuanced picture of how Bharatiya view the evolving dynamic between the two neighbors. It identifies the border dispute as the “biggest stressor” in the relationship—a sentiment echoed by both Bharatiya and Chinese officials. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s recent meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted the renewed emphasis on resolving the border impasse, particularly in eastern Ladakh. Yet, despite these talks, the survey underscores a prevailing belief that mutual trust remains elusive, and Bharatiya overwhelmingly support strengthening defense infrastructure alongside diplomatic efforts.

The most striking finding of the survey is the domestic sentiment regarding Bharat’s global alignments. A commanding 69.2% of respondents believe that if forced to choose, Bharat should align with the US-led West rather than with China and Russia. This preference for the West reflects a pragmatic outlook shaped by Bharat’s aspirations for global leadership and the strategic benefits of aligning with established democratic powers. It also indicates a public wariness of China’s growing regional influence, particularly its inroads into Bharat’s immediate neighborhood.

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The data presents a duality in public opinion. While a significant portion of respondents (49.6%) agree that greater trade with China aligns with Bharat’s developmental and security interests, and over half (56.3%) support Chinese investments for their potential to create employment, the trust deficit runs deep. A substantial 61.5% of respondents believe that a more democratic China could improve bilateral ties, though 46.6% maintain that the relationship will remain fraught regardless of Beijing’s leadership.

Interestingly, the survey also delves into broader geopolitical concerns. Respondents see China’s influence in Bharat’s neighborhood as the second-most pressing issue after the border dispute, reflecting anxieties over projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Beijing’s growing clout in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Myanmar. At the same time, respondents are skeptical about the effectiveness of multilateral initiatives like the Quad in countering China, with 50.8% describing its impact as “somewhat effective” and 44.4% labeling it “ineffective.”

On cultural and ideological issues, the survey offers fascinating insights. An overwhelming 64% of respondents favor recognizing the Dalai Lama’s successor nominated by the Tibetan Administration-in-Exile, highlighting Bharat’s enduring sympathy for the Tibetan cause. Additionally, when it comes to Taiwan, a majority (54.4%) believe Bharat should adopt a peace-brokering role, emphasizing diplomacy over confrontation. These findings underscore the Bharatiya public’s nuanced approach to contentious issues, advocating for pragmatism without compromising on values.

China’s official response to these developments has been measured. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian expressed Beijing’s willingness to “properly settle differences with sincerity,” aligning with the public’s desire for dialogue. However, the question remains whether this rhetoric can translate into action. History suggests that China’s overtures often serve strategic objectives, raising concerns about the durability of its commitments.

The survey also sheds light on the enduring mistrust stemming from China’s territorial ambitions and its opaque political ecosystem. While many respondents acknowledge the benefits of economic engagement, the shadow of past betrayals—such as the 1962 war and the 2020 Galwan clashes—continues to loom large. For the Bharatiya government, navigating this terrain requires balancing public skepticism with diplomatic pragmatism.

At the heart of this delicate balancing act lies Bharat’s aspiration to emerge as a global power while safeguarding its sovereignty and interests. The preference for aligning with the US-led West reflects not only strategic considerations but also a broader ideological alignment with democratic values. Yet, this inclination does not preclude a pragmatic engagement with China, especially in areas of mutual benefit like trade and investment.

The findings also offer a sobering reminder of the fragility of Bharat-China relations. While talks between Modi and Xi and the recent Doval-Wang meeting signal a thaw, the deep-seated mistrust between the two nations—and within their respective populations—suggests that the path to normalization will be long and fraught with challenges. For Bharat, building a robust defense posture and leveraging alliances like the Quad are critical to maintaining a position of strength in these negotiations.

In conclusion, the “Pulse Of The People” survey underscores the complexity of Bharat-China relations at a pivotal moment in their shared history. While diplomatic channels are opening, public sentiment remains wary, advocating for a combination of military preparedness and cautious engagement. For Bharat, this dual approach is not just strategic but essential in navigating a future marked by both competition and cooperation with its northern neighbor. The thaw in relations, while promising, will require sustained effort, trust-building, and a commitment to addressing the core issues that continue to divide these two Asian giants. Whether this fragile détente can evolve into a stable partnership remains an open question, one that will shape the region’s geopolitical landscape in the years to come.