Poonam Sharma
Assam is gearing up for one of the most politically charged elections the state has seen in recent times. What seemed until recently an eminently predictable electoral landscape has now turned into a cauldron of identity narratives, hard governance debates, tribal autonomy demands, and highly strategic alliances. Every party, from national powerhouses to sharp, regionally rooted organisations, is fighting with renewed aggression-because Assam is no longer just an election. It is a political statement on who defines the state’s future.
Identity Politics Returns to Centre Stage
Equally, Assam has long been a state where cultural anxieties and electoral outcomes run side by side. The tussle for this election is no exception. CAA remains emotionally incendiary even today, particularly among Assamese-speaking communities fearful of demographic change and cultural dilution. Opposition parties are gearing up to convert the anxiety into full-scale political rebellion-framing the election as a fight to “protect Assam’s identity.”
On the other hand, the ruling camp is refusing to cede the narrative. Their counter-pitch: the CAA is a humanitarian measure; illegal migration-not documented refuge-is the real threat. This tug-of-war is shaping the loudest political debate in the state.
The NRC too is resurfacing as an important factor. Parties will point fingers at each other for the mess of confusion, exclusion lists and legal limbo affecting lakhs. In the coming months, expect identity politics to dominate rallies, student union activism, and television panels.
Governance vs. “Fear Politics”: Two Contrasts, One State
The government’s strategy is to position itself as a regime of “order and efficiency”. Crackdowns on child marriage, tighter policing, action against corruption, and welfare digitization are being presented as achievements. The message is clear: Assam needs discipline, not chaos.
Opponents, however, accuse the government of bulldozer governance—harsh, disproportionate, and politically selective. The child marriage arrests, for example, have split public opinion: to some, a sign of determination; to others, “headline governance.” This polarity is infusing fresh energy into the election.
The Tea Garden Vote: Assam’s most powerful electoral currency
This time too, the tea tribe community remains the deciding force with over 40 lakh voters, with every party aggressively courting them. Wage increase, land rights, job assurance and better healthcare in the tea estates have now become promises of the election season.
The ruling coalition maintains that its welfare push-housing, healthcare, and cash benefits-has fundamentally transformed lives. The opposition argues this is superficial politics, with the country’s systemic issues still left unaddressed.
Expect a heated and very targeted campaign in districts like Dibrugarh, Golaghat, Sonitpur, and Udalguri.
Autonomous Councils and Balancing of Tribal Powers
It is not possible to understand Assam’s politics without the Bodoland Territorial Region, Karbi Anglong, and Dima Hasao. Here, votes are shaped not by grand speeches from Guwahati but by the performance of local autonomous councils.
Regional tribal parties will play kingmakers. Their alliances – which are sustained or broken – may alter the course of at least 20 seats. Each major political formation has already begun backroom negotiations to try and lock these alliances before the Model Code of Conduct comes into operation.
Floods, Insecurity, and Climate Politics
Flood management is turning into a near-moral question. “Why does Assam drown every year?” has become a rallying cry. Parties are ready to weaponise both failure and partial progress.
The ruling side will initiate embankment repairs, satellite-based forecasting, and river-front restructuring.
Opponents will showcase inundated villages, destroyed crops, and years of institutional neglect.
The Youth Vote:
Aspirational, Impatient, Unpredictable Over 30% of Assam’s voters are below the age of 35. They will not be satisfied by 1970s identity politics. Jobs, industrial investment, reforms in the oil sector, and skill development will be their major priority. Unemployment has now turned into a political landmine-a sensitive area where every party is attempting to tread with caution while weaponizing it against others.
Conclusion
With this, the Assam election is all set to be a layered, unpredictable, and combative political spectacle. Identity will collide with governance, tribal aspirations with central political strategies, and development claims with the realities of floods and unemployment. Assam heads into a decisive political season-one that is going to redefine its future narrative, whoever wins.
