Arvind Kejriwal’s Political Crossroads: Ludhiana West Victory and a Shot at Redemption

Paromita Das
New Delhi, 25th June:  A Win Beyond the Ballot

The victory in the Ludhiana West bypoll is more than just a minor electoral triumph for the Aam Aadmi Party—it may very well be the start of a crucial turning point in the career of its embattled chief, Arvind Kejriwal. For a leader who once redefined Delhi’s political landscape and then watched it slip away in a stunning electoral collapse, the recent developments in Punjab could offer more than symbolic reassurance—they could offer a path back to national relevance. And that path, as political observers increasingly suggest, may run through the Rajya Sabha.

Sanjeev Arora’s shift from the Upper House to the Punjab Assembly sets up a tantalizing possibility: a Rajya Sabha berth for Kejriwal. This would not merely be a procedural development, but a strategic leap—out of the ruins of Delhi’s 2025 debacle and back into the corridors of Parliament, albeit the Upper House.

The Fall in Delhi: A Crisis of Confidence

Until just a few months ago, Kejriwal’s political narrative was closely tied to Delhi’s governance model. The Aam Aadmi Party, once hailed as a disruptive force, had secured a remarkable 67 out of 70 seats in 2015, and 62 in 2020. But in the 2025 Assembly elections, that dominance was all but erased. The party was reduced to just 22 seats, with Kejriwal himself losing in New Delhi—his long-held bastion. It wasn’t merely a defeat; it was a political implosion.

The BJP, armed with a potent mix of nationalism and targeted welfare schemes, reclaimed Delhi with an overwhelming mandate. The magnitude of AAP’s loss pointed to deeper disillusionment among voters—not just with policies, but with leadership. Questions about transparency, accountability, and the party’s internal functioning surfaced. For Kejriwal, the message was brutal but clear: his political invincibility had evaporated.

Punjab: A Launchpad for Reinvention

In the aftermath of Delhi’s downfall, Kejriwal and his party redirected their focus to Punjab—the only state where AAP continues to wield power. The recent win in Ludhiana West, therefore, is less about one constituency and more about reclaiming relevance. If Arora resigns as expected, the vacancy in the Rajya Sabha opens a practical and symbolic door for Kejriwal. With AAP holding 94 of 117 Assembly seats, his election to the Upper House would be a procedural formality.

But behind that formality lies a calculated political maneuver. Punjab, unlike Delhi, still offers room for narrative building and policy innovation. It’s a stage where Kejriwal can pivot from being a state-level administrator to a national voice—especially with Parliament as his megaphone.

Is This Strategic Brilliance or a Desperate Bet?

Kejriwal’s increased visibility in Punjab in recent months hasn’t gone unnoticed. From policy rollouts to aggressive campaigning, he has positioned himself not just as a party chief, but as a hands-on mentor to the state government. The Ludhiana West bypoll served as a test—not just for AAP’s machinery, but for Kejriwal’s enduring brand in Punjab.

Whether his push into Punjab is a strategic realignment or a desperate search for political oxygen depends on perspective. On one hand, shifting focus to the only governed state is logical. On the other, it underscores AAP’s growing irrelevance in other regions. The party failed to win a single seat outside Punjab in the 2024 general elections. Even its alliance with the INDIA bloc proved fruitless. States like Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh offered little traction, despite consistent efforts. The loss of the Barnala seat in Punjab itself was a stark reminder that nothing is guaranteed.

So while Ludhiana West is a win, it is not a sweeping mandate. It is a foothold—nothing more, nothing less.

Fragmented Opposition: AAP’s Silver Lining in Punjab

One of the quieter undercurrents aiding AAP’s position in Punjab is the disintegration of traditional opposition forces. The Shiromani Akali Dal, long considered a pillar of Punjab politics, has lost its coherence and electoral strength. Meanwhile, the BJP and Congress remain locked in ideological battle at the national level, making collaboration at the state level implausible.

This fragmentation prevents the anti-AAP vote from consolidating, which in turn gives AAP a unique edge. As long as its opponents are divided and disorganized, even marginal wins like Ludhiana West can be parlayed into larger strategic gains.

However, political winds shift quickly. A divided opposition is an opportunity, not a guarantee.

A Rajya Sabha Seat: Revival or Placeholder?

The Rajya Sabha has traditionally been a refuge for senior leaders or technocrats, but for Kejriwal, it could be a crucible for reinvention. His oratory skills, sharp policy acumen, and confrontational style could find fertile ground in parliamentary debates. It could also allow him to shape national discourse, influence legislative priorities, and rebuild the party’s brand across Bharat.

But a seat in the Rajya Sabha cannot substitute for mass support. Symbolism will not suffice. To truly return to the national stage, Kejriwal must do more than reclaim a chair—he must reconnect with the aspirations of a restless electorate. AAP needs a renewed organizational structure, a coherent ideology beyond anti-corruption slogans, and strong regional alliances if it wants to move beyond Punjab’s borders.

 A Narrow Door to a Broader Stage

Kejriwal’s political journey, from an anti-corruption crusader to a two-time Chief Minister and now a humbled challenger, has been anything but linear. The Ludhiana West victory and the potential Rajya Sabha entry represent not a triumphant comeback, but a second chance. Whether he uses it to rise again or merely stall his descent will define the next chapter in both his career and AAP’s future.

For now, the door is open. But it remains to be seen whether Kejriwal can walk through it with vision, purpose, and the capacity to learn from past missteps—or whether it will close as quickly as it opened.