Analyzing the Implications of Rahul Gandhi’s Shift from Amethi to Rae Bareli

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 7th May. Following the announcement of Congress’s candidates from Amethi and Rae Bareli, a number of questions surfaced, the responses to which shed light on the party’s ideology and leadership. The key question is: What made Rahul Gandhi decide to switch from Amethi to Rae Bareli? One explanation for this would be because he prioritized the duty of preserving Rae Bareli’s legacy. It is also likely that he was afraid of losing politically if he was defeated in Amethi and lacked faith in his ability to win. Delaying the choice has resulted in the greatest loss. What will happen to a party when significant choices are made with uncertainty and not just delay?

The names of these three candidates—Rahul, Priyanka, and Varun Gandhi—for the two seats were up for discussion. It’s also important to think about the political implications of Priyanka and Varun’s decision not to run for office. Another query is: which party’s ticket—the Congress or the BJP—would Varun have run on if he had entered the race? This question will remain unanswered for the time being. Perhaps things would be different if Varun Gandhi made his goals clear.

Even though the Congress supporters of Amethi were expressing the belief that Rahul Gandhi’s victory was certain, Rahul Gandhi had accepted his defeat even before the 2019 election battle. His decision to contest from two seats indicates that he feared defeat in Amethi. Still, the stain of being a fugitive on him is not going to be washed off easily. Not even Rae Bareli will make their path simple. While Sonia Gandhi had scored a hat-trick of victories by winning four consecutive times from Rae Bareli, her vote percentage was also decreasing. She received 80.49% of the vote in this region in 2004; this number fell to 72.23% in 2009, 63.80 % in 2014, and 55% in 2019. The Congress suffered setbacks in Rae Bareli and Amethi during the 2022 assembly elections, even after securing the Lok Sabha mandate in 2019.

This indicates that even at the organizational level, the party is in decline. While there were dangers involved with resuming the contest, the harm to his reputation in the off-field issue is equally significant. Rae Bareli’s defection signifies the Congress fort’s collapse. If the Congress represents the Nehru-Gandhi clan, then its departure from the Hindi heartland signifies the end of its existence. Maybe that’s why Rahul was chosen over Rae Bareli.

Though it’s not a sure thing, he might defeat Rae Bareli this time. If he prevails, though, it appears that he might leave the Wayanad seat. It will be important to stay close with Rae Bareli in order to preserve the family’s reputation. More than that, winning from this seat is also essential symbolically to maintain ties with North India. BJP will therefore employ every tactic at its disposal to remove him from office. In the 2019 elections, Dinesh Pratap Singh, a local candidate, received 3,67,740 votes, while Sonia Gandhi received 5,34,918. In other words, the winning margin stayed at 1.69 lakh, a decline from 3.52 lakh in 2014.

In the 2019 election, Sonia Gandhi received support from both the BSP and the SP. The outcome of this Rae Bareli election would also affect Kerala’s assembly elections in 2026. Rahul Gandhi’s victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections helped the Congress achieve great success because he was a candidate from Wayanad; nevertheless, the Left Front’s triumph in the 2021 Assembly elections ended the custom of rotation. If Rahul Gandhi wins from Wayanad and retreats from there, the consequences could potentially be negative for him.