Amit Shah’s Bihar Equation: Trust in Nitish, Control with BJP

Paromita Das

New Delhi, 17th October: Politics in Bihar has never been short of intrigue, and with the 2025 Assembly elections approaching, the race for the Chief Minister’s chair has become the state’s hottest political mystery. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its longtime ally-turned-foe-turned-ally, Janata Dal (United), is fighting this election under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership. But a single statement by Union Home Minister Amit Shah at a media event in Patna has injected both clarity and confusion into the debate about who will ultimately wear the crown if NDA returns to power.

Shah’s words were calm but calculated, diplomatic yet decisive — the kind of political tightrope act that defines his leadership style. While he reaffirmed trust in Nitish Kumar’s leadership, he also subtly kept the door open for post-election negotiations, signalling that the final decision will not be pre-decided, but democratically determined.

“I Am Not the One to Make a Chief Minister” — Shah’s Key Remark

When asked directly whether Nitish Kumar would continue as Chief Minister if the NDA wins, Amit Shah delivered a statement that instantly became the headline of the day:

“Who am I to make anyone Chief Minister? There are so many parties in the alliance. After the elections, the elected members of the alliance will meet and decide their leader.”

This one line encapsulated the BJP’s approach — keeping political flexibility without alienating a crucial partner. Shah was quick to add that the NDA is fighting the election under Nitish Kumar’s leadership, ensuring that no signal of disunity reached Bihar’s voters.

In essence, Shah reaffirmed the current arrangement but also reminded everyone that post-election politics in Bihar has always been a game of arithmetic and alliances, not declarations and manifestos.

Balancing Trust and Strategy

Shah’s remarks reveal an important duality in the BJP’s Bihar strategy — trust Nitish Kumar, but keep the power equation open. When questioned whether the BJP, if it wins more seats than JD(U), would still back Nitish as Chief Minister, Shah offered a telling response:

“Even now, we have more MLAs, yet Nitish Kumar is the Chief Minister. The people of Bihar and the BJP both trust him.”

That line was more than reassurance — it was political insurance. By reminding voters of BJP’s past generosity, Shah subtly portrayed the BJP as the mature, stable partner willing to value alliance unity over raw numbers.

Yet, it also leaves the BJP with strategic leverage after the elections. If the JD(U) underperforms or if smaller allies become decisive, the BJP can revisit the leadership question within the bounds of Shah’s carefully worded statement.

Shah’s Defence of Nitish: A Lesson in Political Framing

What surprised many observers was Amit Shah’s defence of Nitish Kumar’s credibility. Despite Nitish’s reputation for frequent political realignments — switching between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan — Shah painted a picture of ideological continuity rather than opportunism.

He reminded the audience that Nitish Kumar emerged from the anti-Congress, socialist movement of the 1970s, led by Jayaprakash Narayan.

“Nitish Kumar has been anti-Congress since his student days. During the Emergency and JP movement, he stood against Congress. One must assess a leader by looking at his entire political life,” Shah asserted.

In doing so, Shah effectively reframed Nitish’s history of alliance switches not as betrayal, but as pragmatic politics rooted in anti-Congress conviction — a message aimed both at disarming critics and consolidating anti-Congress sentiment among Bihar’s voters.

Reading Between the Lines: BJP’s Long Game in Bihar

Analysts see Shah’s statement as a masterclass in political ambiguity. It allows the BJP to contest the election without upsetting Nitish’s loyal base, while keeping the option open for a leadership transition if numbers or circumstances demand it.

It’s no secret that the BJP’s Bihar cadre and several senior leaders have grown restless under Nitish’s continued leadership. For them, Shah’s “let the MLAs decide” line is a quiet assurance that the party’s long-term goal of installing its own Chief Minister in Bihar remains alive — just not declared.

At the same time, the BJP cannot afford to appear divided or overambitious before the polls. Nitish Kumar remains an asset in rural Bihar, where his image as a seasoned administrator and “vikas purush” (man of development) continues to resonate, especially among older and women voters.

Nitish’s Own Balancing Act

For Nitish Kumar, Amit Shah’s remarks are both validation and warning. They confirm his status as the face of the NDA in Bihar but also hint that his continuation will depend not on legacy, but on performance. Nitish is known for his political acumen, and he will likely interpret Shah’s message as a reminder to deliver results rather than rely solely on past goodwill.

Leadership by Design, Not Declaration

Amit Shah’s statement on Bihar’s future leadership is more than a comment — it’s a strategy. By refusing to anoint a Chief Ministerial candidate before the results, Shah has kept the NDA’s internal dynamics fluid, adaptable, and dependent on electoral math rather than personality politics.

In Bihar’s political theatre, where alliances shift and loyalties evolve overnight, such flexibility is not confusion — it’s calculated control.

For now, Nitish Kumar remains the NDA’s captain, but not its unquestioned monarch. The final script, as Amit Shah hinted, will be written not in television studios or press conferences, but in the post-election room where numbers, not narratives, decide power.