Poonam Sharma
South Asia woke up to the sound of another dangerous escalation. In what is being described as an “open war” moment, Pakistan carried out overnight airstrikes in Afghanistan, targeting key cities including Kabul and Kandahar. Islamabad claimed the strikes killed 133 fighters and described the operation as a “strong and effective response” to alleged cross-border attacks.
The escalation follows Afghanistan’s claim that it killed 55 Pakistani soldiers along the disputed Durand Line, a colonial-era boundary Kabul has never formally recognized. Within hours, both sides were trading sharply conflicting casualty figures and accusations.
Residents in Kabul and Kandahar reported hearing loud explosions and fighter jets overhead. Pakistan’s air force reportedly targeted military facilities, including brigade bases and Taliban ammunition depots. Afghan officials, meanwhile, claimed they captured Pakistani posts during retaliatory operations.
As global concern mounted, Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations , urged restraint and emphasized the need to protect civilians under international law. But diplomatic appeals may struggle against hardened rhetoric on both sides.
A Conflict Years in the Making
This confrontation did not erupt overnight. Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have simmered for years, fueled by disputes over the Durand Line and Pakistan’s accusations that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operates from Afghan soil. Kabul denies these allegations, but mistrust has deepened since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
Recent months saw sporadic cross-border exchanges despite Qatar-mediated ceasefire efforts. However, the latest airstrikes represent a significant escalation. The use of air power against major cities crosses a psychological threshold, increasing the risk of miscalculation.
Humanitarian Fallout
The violence has already affected civilians. Reports emerged of injuries at a refugee camp near the Torkham crossing. Families on both sides of the border have begun relocating to safer areas. With Pakistan already expelling large numbers of Afghan migrants since 2023, the humanitarian dimension could quickly spiral.
Afghanistan’s fragile economy and Pakistan’s ongoing financial crisis mean neither country is well-positioned for prolonged conflict.
What It Means for India
For India, this is not a distant conflict — it has real strategic implications.
First, instability in Afghanistan raises security concerns. India has historically invested heavily in Afghan infrastructure, development projects, and people-to-people ties. Although engagement with the Taliban government remains cautious, India has maintained diplomatic channels to safeguard its interests.
If chaos deepens, extremist groups may find operational space. Any strengthening of militant networks in the region would directly concern India’s internal security apparatus.
Second, Pakistan’s military focus could shift westward. A sustained confrontation with Afghanistan may stretch Pakistan’s armed forces. While that might reduce immediate military pressure along India’s western front, it could also trigger aggressive rhetoric or diversionary tactics.
Third, geopolitics comes into play. China, with investments in Pakistan under CPEC, will monitor developments closely. Iran and Russia also have stakes in Afghan stability. India may find opportunities to quietly expand humanitarian outreach or regional diplomacy, positioning itself as a stabilizing force.
A Dangerous Precedent
The normalization of cross-border airstrikes risks creating a new template for regional conflict. Once air power is introduced into routine disputes, the margin for error narrows dramatically.
The coming weeks will determine whether backchannel diplomacy prevails or whether this confrontation becomes a prolonged crisis. For India, careful monitoring, calibrated diplomacy, and strategic patience will be essential.
South Asia stands at a crossroads — and the direction chosen now may shape regional security for years to come.
