Poonam Sharma
In the coming days, the United States Supreme Court is expected to deliver a judgment that could redefine the limits of presidential power in trade policy. At the center of the case is a question with global consequences: were the tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump legal?
This is not a routine trade dispute. It is one of the most consequential trade cases in recent American history. The Trump administration justified sweeping tariffs by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law originally designed to give presidents extraordinary authority during genuine national security emergencies. Trump’s team argued that trade deficits, imports, and economic dependencies posed such an emergency.
The Supreme Court must now decide whether the IEEPA truly grants a president the power to impose broad, long-term tariffs at will—or whether this law was stretched far beyond its original intent.
Legal experts believe the court may not dismantle the entire tariff regime, but it could significantly narrow emergency powers, restricting how tariffs can be used in the future. If that happens, the implications will be enormous—not just politically, but economically.
Why? Because if the tariffs are ruled illegal, the US government could be forced to refund billions of dollars collected from businesses over several years. From steel and aluminum to consumer goods, American companies have paid the price. Treasury officials are already being asked an uncomfortable question: does the US even have the money to return what it collected?
This looming legal threat explains a great deal about what we are witnessing now on the global stage.
Just days ago, Donald Trump was threatening 500% tariffs. The language was confrontational, aggressive, and dismissive. Suddenly, however, the tone has changed. Negotiations are “ongoing.” India is being described as America’s “closest friend.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being praised personally. High-profile invitations are being extended. India is being courted at global platforms, from trade discussions to technology forums.
This shift is not accidental. It is strategic.
As the tariff weapon begins to lose its legal foundation, the Trump camp appears to be recalibrating. When coercion weakens, diplomacy becomes necessary. And in today’s global order, no major economic or strategic recalibration is possible without India.
India is not just another trade partner. It is the fastest-growing major economy, a massive consumer market, and a central pillar of the Indo-Pacific balance of power. Even after tariffs, India’s growth momentum has remained strong. New trade agreements—such as those with the UK—have been signed. India has demonstrated that it is not economically cornered.
More importantly, India has shown that it will not bend under pressure.
There were moments when American commerce officials openly suggested that India would have to “adjust,” that phone calls were unanswered, that deals were stalled. But India did not rush to appease. The Indian leadership made it clear: national interests—farmers, workers, fishermen, and domestic industries—would not be sacrificed for short-term diplomatic comfort.
That stance matters.
Strategically, the US also faces a hard truth. If Washington wants to maintain influence in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific—especially amid rising competition from China—it cannot do so without India. Security cooperation, counter-terrorism, energy supply chains, technology, education—every major area of future cooperation runs through New Delhi.
This is why the rhetoric has softened. This is why praise has replaced pressure. This is why Trump now speaks of Modi as a personal friend and India as a trusted partner.
It is not sudden affection. It is geopolitical necessity.
India, meanwhile, has played this moment with calculated restraint. It has neither escalated nor capitulated. It has waited—patiently—for institutions, markets, and legal processes to do their work. As the Supreme Court’s decision approaches, India understands that time is not against it.
This is classic Chanakya Niti—strategy without noise, firmness without drama.
The lesson from this unfolding episode is clear. In today’s world, power does not always shout. Sometimes, it waits. And when others are forced to adjust, it stands exactly where it was—confident, independent, and ready to negotiate on its own terms.
