Bihar Election 2025: NDA Strengthens Grip as Early Trends Tilt Balance

Paromita Das

New Delhi, 14th  November: As the first rays of dawn broke on Thursday, the political landscape of Bihar began to crystallize with the commencement of vote counting for the 2025 Assembly elections. Early trends signal a significant edge for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as it comfortably crosses the halfway mark of 122 seats, consolidating its position against the Mahagathbandhan coalition led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

The unfolding electoral narrative is more than just numbers — it reflects shifting political loyalties, strategic alliances, and the aspirations of a state that remains pivotal in India’s socio-political matrix.

NDA’s Early Lead and Conversion Rates

By 9:30 am, NDA was leading on 150 out of the 243 seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) — led by current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar — accounting for 65 and 63 seats respectively. Both parties boast healthy conversion rates: JD(U) at over 68% and BJP around 66%. These figures underscore the coalition’s strong electoral machinery and grassroots connect, buoyed by Nitish Kumar’s enduring popularity.

In comparison, the Mahagathbandhan’s lead appears subdued with only about 75 seats, highlighting the coalition’s struggle under the coalition dynamics. Despite the RJD maintaining a commendable lead on 49 seats and a 36% conversion rate, its allies have underwhelmed. The Congress accounts for 16 leads while the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation holds six. Other smaller players like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj and AIMIM have shown marginal leads with three and one seats, respectively.

Key Battlegrounds and Candidates

The election is witnessing a high-stakes contest among some well-known political figures. Tejashwi Yadav’s lead in his home constituency of Raghopur is a significant morale booster for the RJD. Meanwhile, BJP’s prominent candidates—Samrat Choudhary and Maithili Thakur—are ahead in the Tarapur and Alinagar seats, signaling important victories for the ruling alliance.

Counting operations began at 8 am under tight security protocols, with tens of thousands of agents monitoring the process across 4,372 counting tables. Postal ballots were tallied first, followed by electronic voting machine (EVM) votes starting from 8:30 am. With the Election Commission of India (ECI) ensuring a smooth process involving 2,616 candidates from 12 recognized political parties, this election marks another benchmark in India’s electoral transparency.

Political Context and Historical Shifts

The core battle in Bihar has traditionally revolved around the NDA and Mahagathbandhan coalitions. In 2020, the NDA achieved a majority with 125 seats, and Nitish Kumar retained his Chief Ministership. However, politics in Bihar has since been anything but stable. Kumar’s dramatic break from the BJP-led NDA in August 2022, followed by a short-lived alliance with RJD-Congress, showcased the fluid nature of state-level politics. His eventual return to NDA in January 2024, ahead of the parliamentary elections, reshaped alliances once again.

This oscillation reflects the complex social dynamics and caste-based voting peculiar to Bihar, impacting how political narratives evolve. Unlike straightforward bipartite contests, these shifting allegiances complicate voter sentiment and coalition coherence.

Electoral Performance: Gains and Declines

Looking at the trajectory of key players over recent elections deepens the understanding of current trends:

• The BJP improved markedly from winning 53 out of 157 seats contested in 2015 to 74 out of 110 in 2020, demonstrating its expanding grassroots reach.
• RJD’s strongholds remained, winning 80 of 101 seats contested in 2015 and 75 of 144 in 2020, signifying solid core support.
• JD(U)’s dip—from 71 seats in 2015 to 43 in 2020—reflects fluctuating fortunes for its leadership.
• Congress, once a key player, saw a decline from 27 seats in 2015 to 19 in 2020.
• Emerging players like Jan Suraaj hold potential for disrupting established patterns.

Stability, Strategy, and Voter Sentiment

The ongoing early trends in Bihar’s election counting highlight a few critical points for India’s democracy. Firstly, the NDA’s strengthened position suggests continuing voter faith in governance continuity and development promises, particularly under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. The coalition’s ability to maintain distinct identities yet work collectively has provided a strategic advantage.

However, the Mahagathbandhan’s struggles point towards an uneasy alliance. While RJD still commands a loyal vote bank, its fractured coalition and underperformance of allies affect its ability to mount a serious challenge. This election underscores how alliance-building, candidate selection, and grassroots engagement have become as pivotal as policy promises.

Furthermore, the presence of new challengers like Jan Suraaj signals voter fatigue with traditional options, especially among younger demographics demanding fresh narratives and governance models.

Bihar’s Verdict and Its Larger Implications

As votes continue to be counted, Bihar stands at another political crossroads that will shape its trajectory for the next half-decade. The preliminary dominance of the NDA is indicative not just of electoral success but of the incumbency’s resonance with voters amid regional and national contexts.

Yet, this election also raises enduring questions about coalition sustainability and political reinvention. Voters have shown an appetite for both stability and change, forcing political parties to balance entrenched loyalties with innovative strategies.

Ultimately, Bihar’s 2025 election results will tell a larger story about India’s evolving democratic engagement, underscoring the continuous dance between old power structures and emerging forces.