Water Wars at Pakistan’s Door: The Taliban’s Kunar River Gambit

Paromita Das

New Delhi, 28th October: Beneath the rugged, conflict-scorched mountains of the Hindu Kush, a new kind of battle is brewing—one not fought with guns or ideology, but with water. Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has launched an ambitious plan to construct multiple dams on the Kunar River, a move that has the potential to change the hydrological balance of the entire region.
For Pakistan, already reeling from Bharat’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, this development strikes like a double assault—throttling the flow of life that sustains its fields, homes, and industries. What appears to be an assertion of “water sovereignty” for Kabul could, in essence, be a slow suffocation for Pakistan’s already strained water and energy reserves.

The Strategic Geography of the Kunar River

The Kunar River, known as the Chitral in Pakistan before entering Afghanistan, is not merely a waterway—it’s a geopolitical artery. Emerging from the melting Chiantar Glacier near the Chitral border, it carves through eastern Afghanistan before joining the Kabul River in Nangarhar Province. Eventually, the combined waters re-enter Pakistan, merging with the Indus River near Attock.
This cross-border network is crucial for irrigation, power generation, and potable water across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab—two provinces central to Pakistan’s agricultural and energy lifelines. The planned dams on the Afghan side will give Kabul unprecedented control over water volume and timing, dramatically impacting flow consistency into Pakistan.

Why the Move Could Devastate Pakistan

Pakistan’s dependence on rivers that originate beyond its borders has long been its Achilles’ heel. With Bharat controlling most of the upper reaches of the Indus system and now Afghanistan asserting similar authority in the west, Islamabad faces a water crisis that straddles national borders.
Even a 10% reduction in transboundary water flow could cripple power output from major hydropower projects, shrink irrigation supply to millions of acres of farmland, and worsen already chronic shortages in cities. Food production would slip, power tariffs would surge, and internal migration from rural to urban centers could rise sharply, creating new waves of economic instability.

The situation exposes Pakistan’s strategic oversight: decades of neglecting hydrodiplomacy with Afghanistan. Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty with Bharat, Islamabad and Kabul never formalized a water-sharing framework. Successive governments, distracted by security concerns, failed to address looming resource competition. Now, that absence of structure has left Pakistan diplomatically vulnerable and hydrologically cornered.

Afghanistan’s Calculated Assertion

For the Taliban government, this dam-building project is more than an infrastructure mission—it’s a declaration of independence and national capability. Ever since it regained power in 2021, the regime has projected resource ownership as a hallmark of sovereignty. By accelerating water management projects, it not only seeks to strengthen internal governance but also send a message to neighboring powers that Afghanistan will no longer be a passive downstream participant.
This narrative of self-reliance resonates across a nation seeking legitimacy amid international isolation. Yet, beneath the rhetoric of progress lies a strategic edge. Restricting or regulating Pakistan’s water inflow, even partially, grants Kabul economic leverage and political visibility it has never previously possessed.

Diplomatic Fallout: Pakistan’s Dilemma

Islamabad’s challenge now lies in striking the right balance between diplomacy and deterrence. Having already faced backlash in global forums over its internal instability and counter-terrorism record, Pakistan’s room for aggressive diplomacy is shrinking.
Initially, Islamabad is expected to pursue quiet engagement through backchannels—possibly leveraging ties with Qatar, China, or Turkey to mediate. It might propose joint hydrological commissions or technical coordination teams to assess downstream impacts. Yet, Kabul’s defiant tone makes it clear that Afghanistan views the project as a matter of sovereign right, not negotiable policy.

Another scenario being discussed in policy circles is Pakistan’s exploration of counter-engineering—diverting or storaging portions of the Chitral River before it crosses the border. While technically challenging and environmentally risky, it underscores Islamabad’s desperation. Such a step, however, could trigger reciprocal measures from Kabul, escalating the tension from diplomatic dispute to open confrontation.

Regional Implications: The Birth of a Hydro-Bloc

The regional alignment further complicates Pakistan’s position. Afghanistan’s newfound confidence coincides with Bharat’s assertive water diplomacy following its suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty earlier this year. Both Delhi and Kabul now exercise upper-hand control of Pakistan’s critical river systems—from the Indus and Ravi in the east to the Kunar and Kabul in the west.
This convergence of strategy strengthens the narrative that Pakistan is being geopolitically “water-encircled.” The Taliban, perhaps unintentionally, has complemented Bharat’s larger containment approach—turning geography into a tool of pressure diplomacy.

For China, a major investor in regional energy networks under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), reduced water availability threatens infrastructural sustainability. This could push Beijing to quietly mediate, motivated as much by self-interest as by regional stability concerns.

Pakistan’s Path Forward

Pakistan’s traditional reliance on crisis management rather than preemptive strategy has again come to haunt it. For decades, water security was treated as a technical domain rather than a national priority. That era must end. Islamabad needs to pursue a threefold approach:
First, initiate immediate high-level water diplomacy with Kabul anchored in shared hydrological data and compensation mechanisms. Second, invest aggressively in domestic water storage and irrigation efficiency—programs that have stagnated for decades. Third, build a regional framework in collaboration with Iran and Central Asian republics to counterbalance Taliban water leverage.

This crisis, if approached strategically, could transform into an opportunity for Pakistan to modernize its water governance—one of the country’s most ignored infrastructure frontiers.

The Shape of a New Tension

The Taliban’s declaration to develop the Kunar River is more than a local policy—it’s a continental signal. Water, the most basic resource for life, is becoming the newest instrument of geopolitical power in South Asia. For Pakistan, caught between two upstream nations challenging its access to rivers, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

If handled poorly, the Kunar dispute could ignite an enduring water war that redraws South Asia’s political equations. But if handled pragmatically—with foresight and structural reform—it could force Pakistan to finally confront its deepest national vulnerability. The rivers that once nurtured its civilization may now test its survival—and its ability to navigate the currents of a reshaping region.