Bihar Polls 2025: Why BJP Can’t Let Go of Nitish
Numbers may favour BJP, but Nitish Kumar still holds the keys to Bihar’s caste politics
Harshita Rai
Bihar is once again on the edge of a high-stakes election, but one thing hasn’t changed in two decades—Nitish Kumar still decides the rules of the game.
The BJP may now be the “big brother” in the alliance with 78 MLAs against JD-U’s 43, yet when it comes to projecting a chief ministerial face, the saffron party quietly falls back on Nitish. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and other senior leaders have already thrown their weight behind him. Why? Because Bihar’s politics is not about who has more MLAs, it’s about who understands the caste puzzle. And on that front, Nitish remains unmatched.
Nitish’s Silent Supporters
Walk into Bihar’s villages, and you’ll hear a quiet respect for Nitish among EBCs, Dalits, non-Yadav OBCs and women. They don’t shout slogans, they don’t dominate TV debates, but when it comes to voting, they stick with him. Political experts call them his “silent vote bank”—loyal, consistent, and decisive.
Yes, Nitish’s vote share slipped to 15% in 2020, but that slice of votes is exactly what gives the NDA the edge against RJD’s Yadav-Muslim base. Without him, BJP risks upsetting the balance.
BJP’s Dilemma: Big in Numbers, Small in Faces
The irony for BJP is striking. It’s the dominant force in the Assembly but still has no local leader who can rival Nitish in credibility and recall. With the passing of Sushil Kumar Modi in 2024, the BJP lost its last big strategist in the state.
Unlike Uttar Pradesh where Yogi Adityanath emerged as a strong face, Bihar remains BJP’s blind spot. This is why—even if grudgingly—the party accepts Nitish as the “face” while it works quietly to groom a future leader.
Nitish: The Opportunist Who Brings Stability
Let’s be honest—Nitish’s habit of switching sides has made him look like an opportunist. But in a state where politics often resembles a seesaw, Nitish has paradoxically been the one constant. Since 2005, except for a brief gap, he has remained Chief Minister.
He is no longer the “Sushasan Babu” of his early years, but ask around in rural Bihar and people will tell you: “Nitish ke baare mein sab jaante hain” (Everyone knows Nitish). That level of familiarity is something BJP simply can’t manufacture overnight.
What BJP Leaders Say (and Don’t Say)
On the ground, BJP leaders are careful not to sound restless. MLA Devesh Kant Singh insists that NDA will contest under Nitish’s leadership, echoing even PM Modi’s line. NDA banners already scream the slogan: “Do Hazar Pachees, Fir Se Nitish.”
But behind closed doors, many in the BJP hope this will be Nitish’s last election as CM face. If the NDA wins comfortably, the party may finally look to break free of its dependence and float its own leader.
Analysis:
The BJP may have grown stronger in Bihar, but the ground reality is stubborn: without Nitish, NDA risks losing its delicate caste balance. For the BJP, backing Nitish is not about love—it’s about math. For Nitish, this election could decide if he exits as a kingmaker or a placeholder.
