Poonam Sharma
China these days is like an egg cooker about to burst. President Xi Jinping, who was once painted as an immoveable “core leader,” is now largely becoming figure one of the domestic public enemy list. Domestic opposition is not just a rumor heard in hushed tones in secret circles; it has spilled out onto the streets, government compounds, and even across the urban city skyline. As rumors swirl about Xi’s declining health and waning authority, attention has shifted to a familiar name within Chinese politics — Hu Chunhua. Subtle state media hints and carefully choreographed appearances suggest that Hu, once sidelined, may be on the verge of a political comeback.
This piece disentangles China’s stranglehold in advance of the September 3rd military parade, the unprecedented protests that have rocked Beijing and Chongqing over the last few days, and the rising speculation that Hu Chunhua may be set up as Xi Jinping’s successor.
Beijing in Lockdown: A Fortress Under Siege
With the September parade looming, Beijing has become a fortress, a prison. Safety precautions have achieved surreal proportions. In the area around Tiananmen Square, police officers are assigned to nearly every step. Subway trains are guarded under the “One Cop, One Dog” regime — each door protected by an officer and a police dog. Multiplied citywide, this is a mind-boggling deployment of man and resource.
The crackdown is far-reaching beyond symbolic areas. Gas supplies to apartments along the parade route have been cut off to forestall “sabotage.” Residents are forbidden from cooking, having to eat state-provided meals in canteens. Street windows must be kept shut, sharp objects ranging from scissors to hammers must be registered or locked up, and parked vehicles have their gas tanks siphoned. Even birds are prohibited from flying at night.
College students and temporary hires have been deployed as grass-roots enforcers, compensated to spy on neighbors, take photos, and report “troublemakers.” For regular Beijingers, the environment is oppressive. Everyday life is a theater of suspicion, surveillance, and quiet anger.
Voices of Defiance: From Restrooms to Skylines
Even under suffocating repression, opposition is piercing the veneer. There has been a so-called “toilet revolution” where anti-CCP graffiti have been found in public toilets throughout the capital. Brief but forceful messages like “The CCP does not equal China” or “The CCP does not speak for the Chinese people” are circulating.
More spectacularly, on the 30th of August, a State Council official supposedly bellowed “Xi Jinping step down!” several times within Zhongnanhai — the epicenter of CCP authority. Security promptly arrested the mid-ranking bureaucrat, but his audacious defiance hit at the regime’s weak point: dissent from the inside.
The same audacity broke out one day earlier in Chongqing. One Ji Hong staged a breathtaking online protest, casting the words “Down with Red Fascism” and “Overthrow the Communist Dictatorship” over the University Town skyline. The words shone out over one of China’s busiest urban districts for 50 minutes before police raided the location. Ji Hong had already escaped to the UK, taking with him footage of the raid and a letter cautioning security forces against becoming “accomplices of evil.”
These events, coming just ahead of the parade, have caused shockwaves in China’s ruling circles. They expose not only public outrage but also divisions within the elite — just the situation the CCP most dreads.
Hu Chunhua’s Return to the Spotlight
In this midst of turmoil, quiet political choreography has pushed one individual to the fore: Hu Chunhua. Formerly touted as a rising star and possible successor, Hu was demoted after Xi Jinping centralized power. His 2022 Politburo ousting even coincided with the theatric removal of Hu Jintao from the Party Congress.
But in recent weeks, Hu has reemerged. During Xi’s brief visit to Tibet, it was Hu — not Xi’s loyal deputies — who was sent to inspect the highly symbolic Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project. Normally, such flagship projects are personally toured by top leaders to showcase authority. That Hu was chosen instead of senior officials such as Wang Huning or Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing signals deliberate elevation.
Still more dramatic was the symbolism on state media. On the same day, People’s Daily ran an editorial starting with the words “60 years of spring blossoms and autumn fruits.” In Chinese, “spring blossoms” or Chunhua directly translates into Hu’s name. The military newspaper, PLA Daily, also carried the same article. In China’s state-controlled media, such punning is not a coincidence — it was a coded message.
VIP Treatment Across Provinces
Hu’s schedule in Jilin fueled the speculations further. At the Northeast Asia Expo, he was treated with the works of Ritz-like VIP hospitality normally extended to the highest leader himself. The provincial Party Secretary, Governor, and CPPCC Chairman — the “big three” of provincial politics — all escorted him. Such red-carpet treatment is unimaginable unless the upper leadership has already sanctioned Hu’s return.
Analysts add that China’s provincial leaders are extremely sensitive to changes in the political breeze. Their willingness to promote Hu indicates they think Xi Jinping’s authority has eroded. Insider reports say that provincial leaders have already been told about imminent leadership adjustments, with Hu and ex-Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Yang to take up central positions.
Xi Jinping Sidelined?
Speculation is mounting that Xi Jinping has long since lost actual power. Some sources say he now acts only as a titular head, playing the role of having authority while quietly giving up decision-making powers. Whether he will be coaxed into half-retirement or outright ousted is unclear.
If the reported compromise is true, Hu Chunhua may become Party General Secretary, and Wang Yang, Premier. This balance of power would see Hu, weaker politically, in charge of the Party, and Wang, more experienced, stimulate the economy. Military control would remain with experienced generals to keep no single group in total control.
The Bigger Question: Can the CCP Survive Itself?
Even if Hu Chunhua and Wang Yang are successful in their bid to replace Xi, their biggest test is not merely healing a battered economy or soothing public indignation. The deeper issue is the system.
China’s one-party model is operating on “garbage time,” in the pejorative phrase of critics. Xi Jinping’s ten years show the folly of attempting to shore up the Party through increased control. He took over a booming economy, global admiration, and widespread domestic approval — and lost it all in the bid for complete authority.
For Hu and Wang, holding on to the Party could appear to be the safest course of action, but it might turn out to be suicidal. The demonstrations in Beijing, the choruses in Chongqing, and the rumors within Zhongnanhai unveil a deeper reality: millions of Chinese no longer equate the CCP with China.
Conclusion
China is at a crossroads. Xi Jinping sits on one side, growing more isolated, as he confronts public disobedience and elite discontent. On the other stands Hu Chunhua, whose stage-managed return implies he might soon take up the position that was initially refused to him.
But leadership turnover alone cannot cure China’s crisis. Whether Hu becomes the Party chief or Wang Yang becomes the premier, their toughest challenge will be whether they are able to challenge the source of the disease — the CCP’s authoritarian apparatus. History might also hold Xi Jinping responsible not just for his ascendancy but also for demonstrating that attempting to salvage the Party ends up destroying the country.
If Hu Chunhua becomes the new China’s face, the world will soon find out if he is a reformer who will make a clean break from the past, or just another keeper of an ailing system.
