NDA’s Bihar Math: BJP-JD(U) Eye Balance, LJP Stirs Tensions
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) pushes for bigger role
- BJP and JD(U) close to seat-sharing deal: ~100–105 seats each.
- Chirag Paswan demands 40 seats; may settle for 20.
- JD(U) insists on not contesting fewer than 100 seats.
- Smaller allies HAM(S), RLM likely to get limited seats.
Harshita Rai
With the Bihar Assembly elections only a few months away, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has moved into the final stages of seat-sharing talks. According to sources cited by The Indian Express, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] are close to finalising a formula where both may contest between 100 to 105 seats each out of the state’s 243.
The tricky part lies in accommodating smaller allies. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP (RV)] has demanded 40 seats, but insiders suggest it may have to settle for around 20. The remaining seats are expected to go to Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) [HAM(S)] and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). Speculation is also rife that Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), currently aligned with the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan, could switch camps, further altering the equation.
Chirag Paswan’s Challenge
In 2020, LJP fielded candidates on 135 seats but won only one.
Despite poor strike rate, it damaged JD(U) on 27 constituencies by splitting votes.
In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, LJP (RV) bounced back, sweeping all 5 seats it contested.
Chirag now aims for 15% vote share in Bihar politics in the long run.
In the 2020 assembly elections, JD(U) had contested 115 seats and BJP 110. The VIP, then part of NDA, contested 11, while HAM(S) fought 7. LJP had gone solo on 135 seats, winning just one but severely damaging JD(U)’s prospects by splitting votes in over two dozen constituencies. Despite the setbacks, BJP emerged as the dominant partner with 74 seats compared to JD(U)’s 43.
This time, JD(U) is determined not to accept fewer than 100 seats. A senior NDA leader stressed, “The last time JD(U)’s tally was hit by LJP’s tactics. The party still commands about 10% vote share, especially among Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). Since the election is being fought under Nitish Kumar’s leadership, his position as CM face is non-negotiable.”
Meanwhile, BJP leaders have pushed back against LJP’s demands, pointing out that while the party won all five Lok Sabha seats in 2024 with over 6% votes, assembly polls depend heavily on local dynamics and organisational strength.
