Karnataka Crisis: Congress Weakens as Modi Waits

Poonam Sharma
Indian politics is once again witnessing turbulence from multiple fronts. At the center of the storm is Karnataka—where the ruling Congress faces allegations of corruption, factional battles, and uncertainty over leadership. Simultaneously, a larger constitutional debate is unfolding in New Delhi, with whispers of a 120th Amendment Bill that could reshape how cases against sitting leaders are handled. Against this background, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi seem set to take advantage of Congress’s confusion, both domestically and internationally.

The Karnataka Cauldron

Karnataka has long been a battle state that sets the national tone. It is now a model of how the Congress is unable to reconcile in-house rivalries. There is, on one side, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, a veteran leader who maintains power through political games. There is, on the other side, Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar, a popular leader, strong organizational influence, and money power.

The high command of Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, has thus far declined to replace Siddaramaiah, even as murmurs increased that Shivakumar should be promoted. At stake is trust. Siddaramaiah is viewed by loyalists of Gandhi as being within control, whereas Shivakumar, with his autonomous support base and militant approach, is both asset and challenge.

Yet, charges of improprieties in real estate, money matters, and suspected benami properties continue to dog Shivakumar. Although certain charges have been challenged or refunded, the specter of corruption gives fire to the BJP, which insists on presenting itself as the purer option.

The Amendment Shadow

In the midst of all this goes the chatter of the 120th Constitutional Amendment, allegedly aimed at bringing transparency to the handling of elected lawmakers who are either charged with criminal or corruption charges. It may drastically alter the game in states such as Karnataka, where sitting leaders have ongoing investigations pending against them.

Congress leaders worry that such a step would weaken their leadership bench, while the BJP is banking on it helping the party’s chances before key state and national elections. Although its passage in the near term before the Bihar elections appears unlikely, the very debate puts fright into Congress ranks.

BJP’s Calculated Patience

For the BJP, the Karnataka drama is a chance. The party does not have, at the moment, a charismatic local face who can match the Congress in plain terms. But by making a big deal of charges against Siddaramaiah’s administration and playing up Shivakumar’s weakness, the BJP is well-placed as a party poised to “clean up” the sordidness when the occasion arises.

Moreover, BJP strategists understand that public humiliation often precedes political exit. In India’s political tradition, leaders are rarely ousted abruptly; rather, their reputations are systematically eroded until their removal appears inevitable. This script may already be unfolding in Karnataka.

Rahul Gandhi’s Weakening Grip

At the national level, the Congress is facing a familiar predicament: reconciling dynasty loyalty with the ambition of powerful state leaders. Rahul Gandhi, presented as the reluctant prince, is having trouble keeping the powerful regional players together—from Rajasthan’s Sachin Pilot to Karnataka’s Shivakumar. Every time there is a compromise, it is at the expense of morale and credibility.

The BJP and its ideological mother, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), skillfully capitalize on it. Symbolic actions such as invoking “Bharat Mata ki Jai” or embracing cultural-nationalist rhetoric tend to leave Congress politicians on the back foot, struggling with the tension between ideological consistency and mass appeal.

The Global Backdrop: From Call Centers to Cyber Fraud

Notably, Congress’s domestic issues mirror its economic performance overseas. Under the UPA years, India’s emergence as the “call center capital of the world” was hailed as a success story. Offshoring centers boomed, English-speaking young Indians manned international customer care services, and foreign investors regarded India as an inexpensive knowledge hub.

But beneath the boom hid ills—weak regulation, exploitative working conditions, and even fraud. Critics contend that the Congress, in its celebration of outsourcing, did not ensure long-term technological innovation. Instead of leading in high-value creation, India was penned into low-cost labor markets.

Under Modi, the narrative has shifted. His government emphasizes self-reliance, indigenous digital infrastructure, and cyber security enforcement. Recent crackdowns on fraud networks linked to call center-style operations reflect both a policy correction and an assertion of sovereignty. By framing Congress-era outsourcing as flawed and exploitative, Modi’s government builds its case for “New India”—where digital growth is coupled with accountability.

What Lies Ahead

The intersection of the power tussle in Karnataka, the possible 120th Amendment, and the war of perceptions at the international level puts Congress on shaky ground. If Siddaramaiah continues to be chief minister, Shivakumar’s aspirations may destabilize the government internally. If Shivakumar is promoted, outstanding cases may come to haunt the party and provide BJP with a propaganda tool.

Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi’s inability to balance these contradictions risks portraying him as both indecisive and detached. For the BJP, patience is a strategy. By waiting for Congress to implode under the weight of its own contradictions, the ruling party can sweep in as the rescuer of governance and stability.

The international angle further strengthens Modi’s position. While Congress is tied to the legacy of outsourcing and the pitfalls it created, Modi seeks to brand himself as the architect of India’s digital sovereignty. This contrast appeals not only to voters at home but also to foreign investors seeking stability.

Conclusion

Karnataka drama isn’t merely a struggle at the state level; it’s a reflection of Congress’s national weakness. The 120th Amendment, if followed through, could make things worse. Toss in the international narrative of economic respectability, and things start falling into place: Congress is trapped both nationally and internationally.

For Prime Minister Modi, this is a double triumph. By letting Congress leaders get themselves entangled in corruption scandals, party feud, and legacy weights, he makes the BJP the natural next stop. Through constitutional amendment, electoral manipulation, or control of the narrative globally, Modi makes sure that the decline of the Congress is not just a chance event but engineered—and irrevocable.