FAO says global demand for meat, dairy set to rise, as climate, nutrition gaps remain high

By Anjali Sharma

UNITED NATIONS – UN Food and Agriculture Organization on Tuesday said that global demand for meat, dairy and fish is projected to climb steadily over the next decade, driven by rising incomes and urbanization in middle-income countries.

FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned in a new study issued in New York said that persistent nutritional gaps and mounting environmental pressures reveal a complex path ahead.

The Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, released on Tuesday, projects a 6% increase in global per capita consumption of animal-source foods by 2034 beef, pork, poultry, fish, dairy and other animal products.

The trend is most pronounced in lower middle-income countries, where intake is expected to rise by 24 per cent, far outpacing the global average.

Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the FAO said “These projections point to better nutrition for many people in developing countries.”

The study showed that the surge in consumption in middle-income economies is attributed largely to rising disposable incomes, changing dietary preferences and urbanization.

In these countries, daily per capita intake of animal-sourced foods is projected to reach 364 kilocalories, surpassing the 300 kcal benchmark.

The consumption in low-income countries will remain low reaching just 143 kcal per day, less than half the amount deemed necessary for a healthy diet highlighting stark inequalities in access to nutrient-rich diets and the challenges ahead to ensure everyone is food secure.

Mr. Qu urged greater efforts to ensure people in the lowest-income countries also benefit from improved nutrition and food security.

The global agricultural and fish production is projected to increase by 14 per cent over the next decade, largely driven by productivity gains in middle-income nations.

Output of meat, dairy and eggs is expected to grow by 17 per cent, while total livestock inventories are projected to expand by seven per cent.

The study said that these gains come at an environmental cost: direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are set to rise by six per cent by 2034, despite improvements in emissions intensity.

As production becomes more efficient, the emissions generated per unit of output will decline, but the overall footprint will still grow unless additional measures are taken.

The report outlined a scenario in which nourishment improves for all, and agricultural emissions are reduced by as much as seven per cent below current levels by 2034.

To achieve this dual outcome would require major investments to improve productivity, alongside widespread adoption of existing low-emission technologies such as precision farming, improved livestock feed and prioritizing nutritional production.

The future progress will depend on a blend of policy coordination, technological innovation and targeted investments – especially in countries where the gap between demand and nutritional value is stark.

Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the OECD said “We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security,”.

“Well-coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open, while fostering long-term productivity improvements and sustainability in the agriculture sector.”

The Outlook also reiterates the importance of trade, given that 22 per cent of all calories eaten will have crossed international borders by 2034.

“International trade will remain indispensable to the global agri-food sector,” the report stressed.

“Multilateral cooperation and a rules-based agricultural trade are essential to facilitating these trade flows, balancing food deficits and surpluses across countries, stabilizing prices and enhancing food security, nutrition and environmental sustainability,” it concluded