The Pakistan-Taliban Equation: Crumbling Alliances, Border Wars, and Bharat’s Strategic Opportunities

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 1^st Jan. The geopolitical turbulence between Pakistan and the Taliban has intensified in recent months, with skirmishes along the Durand Line—the contested border between Afghanistan and Pakistan—escalating into violent clashes. This region, historically marked by fragile alliances and deep-seated mistrust, is now witnessing a full-fledged breakdown of relations. For Bharat, this evolving conflict presents both challenges and opportunities to assert its strategic interests in the region, especially against the backdrop of Pakistan’s economic fragility, internal unrest, and border conflicts.

The Historical Pakistan-Taliban Nexus: A Double-Edged Sword

Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban has long oscillated between patronage and hostility. During the Taliban’s first reign in Afghanistan (1994-2001), Pakistan was one of the regime’s primary benefactors, providing financial aid, military training, and sanctuary to its fighters. It is estimated that 40% of Taliban fighters during the 1990s were trained in Pakistani madrassas, underscoring Pakistan’s role in shaping the group’s ideological and military capabilities. This alliance was driven by Islamabad’s strategic goal of having a pliable neighbor in Kabul, one that would support Pakistan’s objectives in the region, including its conflict with Bharat.

The infamous Kandahar hijacking of 1999 further highlighted the Pakistan-Taliban nexus. When Indian Airlines flight IC 814 was hijacked, the plane was diverted to Kandahar under Taliban control. Pakistan’s coordination with the Taliban during this episode demonstrated their mutual interests in undermining Bharat. For Islamabad, Kandahar provided a geographically advantageous location for the hijackers to safely return to Pakistan while exerting psychological and diplomatic pressure on New Delhi.

The Strains in the Relationship

Post-9/11, Pakistan’s alliance with the Taliban became a liability as Islamabad sought to balance its support for the group with its commitments to the U.S.-led “war on terror.” Between 2002 and 2018, Pakistan received $33 billion in U.S. aid for counter-terrorism efforts, much of which was siphoned into its own strategic interests, indirectly benefiting Taliban operations. However, the Afghan Taliban’s resurgence after the U.S. withdrawal in 2021 has caused significant strain between Islamabad and the Taliban, particularly over the rise of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

The TTP, an ally of the Afghan Taliban, has emerged as a major security threat to Pakistan. Over 400 attacks in Pakistan in 2023 alone were attributed to the TTP, leading to a 79% increase in terrorism-related fatalities from 2021 to 2023. The Taliban’s refusal to curb the TTP’s activities, despite Pakistan’s repeated demands, has further exacerbated tensions. Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrikes inside Afghanistan and the Taliban’s subsequent attacks on Pakistani forces have escalated the conflict, with over 40 Pakistani soldiers killed in recent weeks.

Economic and Political Pressures in Pakistan

Pakistan’s internal challenges have compounded its problems along the Afghan border. The country’s economic crisis has reached alarming levels, with former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa revealing that the military lacked even basic resources like fuel for its vehicles. Inflation is soaring, foreign reserves are dwindling, and the nation is heavily reliant on external bailouts. This financial instability has weakened Pakistan’s ability to effectively manage its multiple border conflicts.

Adding to its woes is the growing unrest within its borders. The Balochistan insurgency continues to pose a significant challenge to Pakistan’s territorial integrity, while protests by supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan have destabilized its political environment. At the same time, tensions with Iran over border issues in the west further stretch Pakistan’s military resources.

Bharat’s Strategic Opportunities Amidst Pakistan’s Vulnerabilities

For Bharat, the turmoil in Pakistan presents a unique opportunity to recalibrate its regional strategy. Pakistan’s focus on managing the western front with Afghanistan and its deteriorating internal situation have created vulnerabilities along the Line of Control (LOC). Bharat appears to be leveraging this situation by redeploying resources from the Bharat-China border to its western front, signaling a strategic shift.

1. Strengthening Ties with Afghanistan

Despite not officially recognizing the Taliban government, Bharat has maintained a pragmatic approach toward Afghanistan. Humanitarian aid, including the supply of 50,000 tons of wheat, and infrastructure development projects have kept Bharat engaged in the region. By using the Chabahar Port in Iran as a gateway, Bharat can provide Afghanistan, a landlocked country, with access to global trade routes, reducing its dependence on Pakistan and fostering goodwill with the Afghan population.

2. Targeting Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK)

With Pakistan’s military stretched thin due to its western border conflicts and economic instability, Bharat could explore opportunities to assert its claims over Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. While such a move would require careful planning and international diplomacy, the current conditions make it an opportune time to advance Bharat’s long-standing territorial objectives.

3. Securing Regional Stability

Pakistan’s border skirmishes with the Taliban and its internal crises pose a risk to regional stability, including threats to Chinese investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). By strengthening its partnership with Iran and Afghanistan, Bharat can position itself as a stabilizing force in the region, countering both Pakistan’s influence and China’s expanding footprint.

Diminishing Pakistan and Bharat’s Rising Leverage

Pakistan’s decades-long strategy of using militant proxies to further its geopolitical goals is now unraveling. The Taliban, once a loyal ally, has become a liability, turning its guns on Pakistan and exposing the flawed logic of Islamabad’s policies. The Durand Line conflict is emblematic of Pakistan’s diminishing control over its periphery, as internal divisions and economic mismanagement take their toll.

For Bharat, this moment represents a turning point. The chaos in Pakistan offers Bharat an opportunity to consolidate its influence in Afghanistan, reassert its claims over POK, and strengthen its position as a regional power. However, this requires a nuanced approach—balancing strategic assertiveness with measured diplomacy to avoid exacerbating tensions in an already volatile region.

Conclusion: Navigating the New Geopolitical Landscape

The Pakistan-Taliban relationship, once defined by mutual dependence, has descended into hostility, with both sides engaged in a deadly conflict along the Durand Line. For Pakistan, this marks a dramatic reversal of fortune, as its former ally now threatens its sovereignty and stability. Meanwhile, Bharat finds itself uniquely positioned to exploit Pakistan’s vulnerabilities, advancing its strategic interests while contributing to regional stability.

As the situation unfolds, the lessons from episodes like the Kandahar hijack serve as a reminder of the complex dynamics at play in the region. While Pakistan grapples with the consequences of its misguided alliances, Bharat has an opportunity to reshape the geopolitical landscape in its favor. The stakes are high, but with careful planning and strategic foresight, Bharat can emerge as a dominant force in South Asia, navigating the challenges of today to secure a stronger position for tomorrow.