Storm Over South Asia: Is Bangladesh the Next Pawn in Pakistan’s Dangerous Game?

Poonam Sharma 

South Asia is edging towards a storm — and not merely due to Pakistan’s typical provocations. Pakistan has been the region’s primary purveyor of instability for years, but now a new and ominous force is rising: Bangladesh, hitherto the model of moderation and growth, is now beginning to get an initial taste of falling into a perilous geostrategic bet.

What’s fermenting below the surface is a combustible cocktail of military desperation, economic strain, and outside interference. At its core is Pakistan’s disintegrating state apparatus — a nation that appears hell-bent on taking its neighbors down with it.

Pakistan’s military is on a war footing. Footage emerging from Lahore, Karachi, and Mirpur indicates massive troop mobilization, and Islamabad’s tone has become belligerent. The army, ever eager to play the role of defender of Pakistan’s sovereignty, has been activating retired networks, especially along the Sialkot-Ferozepur axis. Pakistan is aware that it cannot fight a conventional war against India, but it plans to unnerve New Delhi with old ploys: provocation, proxy, and partnership.

But here’s the catch — Bangladesh is being pulled into the picture.

Under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh has had a stable and pragmatic relationship with India. But in recent times, alarm bells have been rung by voices within the military and political circles of Bangladesh — and in particular by the likes of retired Major General HM Fazlur Rahman — sounding warnings. Rahman has been vociferously arguing for Dhaka to move in the direction of getting closer to China and Pakistan, including speculating that Bangladesh may declare a front in India’s Northeast if Pakistan is put under pressure.

Bangladesh has a particularly vulnerable geographical location. For India, the “chicken’s neck” or Siliguri Corridor — a thin, weak strip of territory connecting the Northeast to the rest of India — is a vital lifeline. Any interruption or hostility from Bangladesh would have gigantic implications for India’s domestic security. And though Sheikh Hasina herself has taken pains not to break with New Delhi, the rising power of China and restlessness among Bangladesh’s military elite provoke uncomfortable questions about where the nation is going.

First, Bangladesh’s previously booming economy is cracking. Global headwinds have struck its garment exports and remittance inflows hard. Domestic unrest is brewing, and as political contest intensifies, some quarters are advocating for Bangladesh to diversify its strategic options — and that includes befriending Beijing and Islamabad.

Second, Chinese influence in Bangladesh has subtly increased. With its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has invested billions in South Asian telecommunications, defense, and infrastructure. Chinese firms are constructing everything from power plants to bridges in Bangladesh, and Beijing’s charm campaign has also included military relations and defense cooperation overtures. Fazlur Rahman’s demands for military cooperation with China are all part of this greater realignment — one that has far-reaching implications for the regional balance of power.

Third, Pakistan’s strategy doesn’t change: externalize domestic issues. Roiled by economic meltdown, political instability, and expanding ethnic unrest in Sindh and Balochistan, Pakistan’s deep state is reverting to its tried-and-true tactics. By prodding Bangladesh to shake India’s northeastern border, Pakistan aims to stretch Indian security thin and breathe life back into the illusion of an international crisis in South Asia. India isn’t sitting still. The Modi government has reacted with a combination of economic strangulations and military belligerence. Restrictions on trade have been further clamped down, especially aimed at Pakistan’s export channels through Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The actions have bruised Pakistan’s dollar-starved economy. The Indian military has, meanwhile, accelerated drills in the Arabian Sea and along the western border, leaving no ambiguity that it would not hesitate to escalate if attacked.

But most importantly, India’s stance is still calibrated. It has maintained its forces within domestic borders, indicating that it will not be provoked into a war on Pakistan’s terms. Meanwhile, Pakistani elites have been discreetly moving their families out of Karachi and other sensitive areas, a revealing indication of the nervousness gripping the establishment.

But it’s Bangladesh’s role that may be decisive in the next few months.

Bangladesh has been regarded for more than 50 years as a unique South Asian success story. It ended Pakistan’s suppressive hold in 1971 with decisive intervention by India. Economic growth, social advancement, and a mild political culture made Dhaka the model to beat. But such a legacy is now being put to the test. Growing pan-Islamic sentiments, the draw of Chinese finance, and gripes over Indian domestic politics are all creating fertile ground for anti-India sentiments to take hold.

Already, intelligence indicates that Bangladesh is being employed as a logistics base by anti-India insurgent groups. If Dhaka becomes a permissive environment for extremist groups or foreign-sponsored agitators, regional peace would suffer seriously.

First, New Delhi needs to double its diplomatic efforts in Dhaka. It is no longer sufficient to bank on past goodwill generated by the 1971 war. India must reach out to the next generation of Bangladeshi security officials, leaders, and civil society players to reaffirm mutual interests in regional stability.

Second, India urgently needs to beef up its Northeast by enhancing its hard and soft infrastructure to counter the Siliguri Corridor’s vulnerability. This entails promoting local economies, border management investments, and countering insurgency capacity.

Third, New Delhi must draw Beijing in more explicitly to South Asia. While rivalry with China is inevitable, India has to assure others that destabilization of the subcontinent will be unacceptable — and that Beijing’s credibility as an international power hinges on curbing reckless allies. South Asia’s geopolitical chessboard is shifting once again, and the moves made in the coming months will shape the region’s future for years to come. If Pakistan succeeds in pulling Bangladesh into its orbit, the consequences will extend far beyond the subcontinent, impacting global supply chains, regional security, and great-power competition.

India’s task is to ride this tempest with resolve and strategic patience. The world, in the meantime, would do well to take notice.

For when South Asia shakes, the tremors are felt everywhere.