Paromita Das
GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 20th April. The election survey round concluded on April 16. No election survey may be carried out or broadcast after April 16, per the Election Commission’s Code of Conduct. Election surveys are open to anybody to perform, but they cannot be made public or broadcast elsewhere. No newspaper, magazine, TV station, or social media platform will air any such survey. Exit polls will now open on June 1, the last day to cast a ballot, after 6:00 p.m.
In the meantime, the Lok Sabha election campaign is steadily approaching its zenith. What is the primary issue in this election, given the circumstances? What is the main story? Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated in the Lok Sabha that the BJP has crossed 370 and the NDA has crossed 400. This is still the matter, even though the opposition does not want to acknowledge it. Whether or not the NDA will reach 400 is the main topic of discussion. Some who oppose the NDA claim that crossing it will be impossible. Supporters of the NDA and BJP claim that reaching 400 is feasible.
Prior to delving deeper into this, note that the opposition’s assertion that the NDA won’t exceed 400 seats isn’t shared by all of them. Regarding this, there are divergent views within the Congress party. Leader of the Congress Rahul Gandhi and President of the Samajwadi Party Akhilesh Yadav together addressed a news conference on Wednesday. Rahul Gandhi stated in it that he had previously believed the BJP would win 170 seats. It appears that the number of seats will be lowered to 150. However, Siddaramaiah, the Chief Minister of Karnataka and head of his own party, is awarding the BJP 220 seats. Prior to anything else, the Congress party ought to determine internally how many seats the BJP is receiving.
Now that the survey phase is done, you will hear from the opposition that the IB report has arrived, as per the BJP’s internal survey and the RSS survey. However, as I’ve already informed you, RSS has never carried out an electoral survey. However, this is stated in every election, citing a poll by RSS. Additionally, a fictitious survey was carried out under the newspaper’s name. The newspaper also issued a threat of legal action. Thus, efforts to run these kinds of stories will not stop.
Is NDA able to surpass 400 or approach 400? On June 4, we’ll know what will transpire, but for now, what is the current state of affairs? What problems do people who claim that 400 cannot be attained fail to mention? What are the things that they overlook? First, according to the results of the 2019 election, the NDA currently has 353 seats. This indicates that the number of seats below 400 is just 47. Various surveys indicate a 3 to 5% increase in the BJP’s vote share. However, the majority of surveys indicate that there will only be a 25–30 seat increase. Presently, the BJP holds 303 seats. There are rumours that 323 will make it. Apparently, 335–337 are being discussed. Certain surveys are willing to pay out more than 350 seats.
What grounds do they have for asserting that BJP will fall behind? When it comes to the 2019 elections, inflation and unemployment will be the two main topics raised by those who advocate for voting for the BJP less. Looking back at the electoral history of independent India, you will see that unemployment and inflation have been the primary concerns for voters in every election since the country’s founding in 1952 and the upcoming elections in 2024. These two matters are the most important ones, but there is never a vote on them.
Voting is not done because it is done on issues other than opposing the ruling government. There is a degree of disillusionment among individuals over this matter. People believe that nobody can find a solution to this problem. Regarding Narendra Modi, however, there is also optimism. People have a glimmer of hope that Narendra Modi will succeed in addressing the issues of unemployment and inflation, given his remarkable accomplishments over the past ten years that were unexpected. The largest weapon of the opposition, unemployment and inflation, is therefore hidden because of people’s confidence in Narendra Modi. It appears to have no effect.
Thus, the projections of the BJP’s reduced number of seats were predicated on the fact that unemployment, inflation, and youth unemployment are all on the rise, and that documents are being leaked. All of these concerns are true, but are EVMs reliable? When a voter presses the button, will they be thinking about this? In ten years, one will have a lot more questions about where the nation’s economy has come from. The impoverished man will wonder what types of changes have occurred in his life and what benefits he has received from the government. A sizable portion of the beneficiaries will question how their level of living has altered.
They will contrast their current circumstances with their circumstances ten years ago, stating that we are happier and more prosperous than we were ten years ago, even though their income has not improved significantly and they do not have many job options. Is it in better shape than before?
Secondly, they are hopeful that Narendra Modi would improve our current situation. The manner that the Bharatiya Janata Party said in their resolution letter that the free ration program will stay in place for five years. Aside from that, he stated that under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, we have constructed 4 crore residences for the impoverished and will construct an additional 3 crore in the ensuing five years.
For those who are still without a home under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, this offers some optimism. They hope that we will also succeed in life, just like our 4 crore friends have. The BJP’s number of seats will decline if you disregard this element of hope and concentrate solely on the problems of unemployment and inflation.
However, no opinion survey is diminishing the number of seats or vote share held by the BJP. There is a numerical difference. In mathematics, there is a distinction. What percentage of the vote is the BJP getting? There is a minimum rise of around 3.5% and a maximum increase of up to 6.7% that is displayed. The election surveys indicate that the BJP will see a 5% boost in votes if we average this. The share of the vote for the Congress party appears to be declining or staying steady. While the Congress Party’s proportion of the vote is declining, the party’s number of seats is rising. How this miracle will occur is a mystery.
Where is Congress now, and which states were the 2019 swing states?
The Congress party won 52 Lok Sabha seats nationwide in the most recent elections. Three states—Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab—were awarded 32 of these seats. The remaining 20 seats were distributed only among the remaining states. In 2019, these three states were pivotal for Congress. It appears that in these three states, the Congress party is losing ground. The extent that it will drop can be disputed, but the fact remains that it is decreasing and that it will do so. The Congress Party secured 15 of the 20 seats in Kerala and 8 of the 13 seats in Punjab in 2019. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress had won all nine of the seats that fell under their quota. Again, there are nine seats this time.
But Kerala’s circumstances have changed from 2019. It seems evident that there will be a decrease in Congress seats. In all three of these stages, something unique is seen. In all three states in 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party was not in rivalry with the Congress. Nevertheless, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress Party will face off in the 2024 elections, with the exception of Kerala. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK is the front-runner. It will undoubtedly be the most popular party. However, the struggle thereafter is between the BJP, Congress, and AIADMK. The BJP seems more powerful than the Congress and the AIADMK. While every survey predicts that the BJP would gain double digits in the vote share, some predict that the party will only concede one seat, while others anticipate conceding as many as five.
The election results will reveal how many seats the BJP wins, but the predictions are that it will overtake the AIADMK to take the second spot in Tamil Nadu. The 2026 assembly elections will reveal its true effects. Only the Lok Sabha elections are being discussed at this time. This time, Tamil Nadu, the swing state for the Congress, will also provide seats to the BJP. The share of votes is rising.
Kerala is experiencing the same thing. Voter share for the BJP is rising. It could potentially receive two or three seats. The BJP’s vote share is rising even if it does not win a seat, despite the widespread belief that Rajiv Chandrashekhar is winning the Trivandrum seat and Shashi Tharoor is losing. It goes without saying that the BJP will only accept votes from the Congress if their vote share rises. The Hindu and Christian votes that Congress receives will be the only ground the BJP will gain, without tarnishing the Muslim vote.
Punjab is the third state. The former Congress has become the new BJP in that place. The majority of Congress’s mass base leaders have joined the BJP. The BJP’s new look is identical to the previous Congress’s. The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress Party will square off there. It is becoming triangular with the Aam Aadmi Party. The extent to which Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest and incarceration will affect Punjab’s elections is hard to predict. The Aam Aadmi Party will undoubtedly experience defeat. In any case, Punjab does not see significant support for the Aam Aadmi Party in terms of the Lok Sabha elections. When they initially ran for office in 2014, they took home four of the thirteen seats. And it only managed to win one seat in 2019. In Punjab, the BJP is growing and the Congress is shrinking.
The next concern is the relative growth of the BJP and the Congress. The BJP’s vote share will undoubtedly rise. Estimating the number of seats that will be available is difficult. There will be fewer congressional seats up for grabs in this triangle race. These are the three swing states for the Congress Party, which is experiencing a downturn.
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