Nation at Crossroads: Mohan Bhagwat’s Call for Larger Families Amid Bharat’s Population Crisis

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau

New Delhi, 10^th December- The issue of declining fertility rates has sparked intense debates in recent years, especially as nations grapple with demographic challenges that threaten their economic and social structures. Against this backdrop, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Chief Mohan Bhagwat’s recent call for families to consider having three children has stirred both controversy and reflection. His remarks, centered around the sharp decline in Bharat’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), have drawn attention to the demographic shifts that could reshape Bharat’s future.

At the heart of Bhagwat’s argument is a concern shared by many demographers: when a population’s TFR falls below the replacement level of 2.1, society risks entering a phase of irreversible decline. While some have welcomed his statement as a necessary intervention, others have criticized it, pointing to factors like inflation, unemployment, and socioeconomic constraints as barriers to larger families. To understand the complexity of the issue, it is essential to unpack the implications of TFR trends, global population dynamics, and the shifting demographics within Bharat.

The Decline of TFR in Bharat: A Historical Perspective

Bharat’s journey with population policies has been both ambitious and complicated. At the time of independence in 1947, the country faced rapid population growth, with a TFR of 6.2 children per woman in 1950. Recognizing the need for population control, Bharat became the first developing nation to adopt a state-sponsored family planning program in 1952. This led to significant institutional efforts, such as the establishment of the Central Family Planning Board in 1956 and the introduction of the National Population Policy in 1976.

These initiatives bore fruit over the decades. By 2015–16, Bharat’s TFR had declined to 2.2, and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2019–21 revealed a further drop to 2.0—below the replacement level. This decline reflects the success of family planning programs but also signals new challenges. According to studies published in The Lancet, Bharat’s TFR is projected to decline further to 1.29 by 2050, with one in five Bharatiya expected to be elderly by then.

This demographic shift, while signaling improved healthcare and family planning, also poses significant risks. A shrinking working-age population could lead to economic stagnation, overburdened welfare systems, and a reduction in the nation’s overall dynamism.

A Global Perspective: The Looming Population Crisis

Bharat is not alone in facing the challenge of declining fertility. According to a Lancet study, by 2050, the TFR in 155 out of 204 countries will fall below the replacement level of 2.1. By 2100, nearly 97% of countries are expected to have TFRs too low to sustain their populations.

Countries like China, Japan, and Germany are already grappling with the consequences of ultra-low fertility rates. China, which long enforced a one-child policy, is now facing a demographic crisis and has introduced measures like extended maternity leave and income tax cuts to encourage larger families. Japan, a country with one of the world’s lowest birth rates, offers financial incentives for childbirth but struggles to reverse its population decline.

Even Russia has gone to unconventional lengths, establishing initiatives like a “Ministry of Sex” to encourage procreation. Hungary has introduced tax exemptions for families with four or more children. These examples underscore the urgency of addressing declining fertility, as nations seek to avoid economic and societal collapse.

Bharat’s Unique Demographic Challenges

While Bharat is not yet in the throes of a demographic crisis, the country faces a dual challenge: a declining birth rate alongside a complex tapestry of demographic shifts. This includes significant variations in fertility rates across religious and regional lines, as well as concerns about illegal immigration.

The Hindu population, which formed 84.5% of Bharat’s population in 1951, had declined to 79.8% by 2011. In contrast, the Muslim population grew from 9.9% to 14.2% over the same period. These demographic shifts, exacerbated by illegal immigration, have become a sensitive topic in Bharat’s political and social discourse.

Bhagwat’s advocacy for larger families must be viewed in this context. His call for three children per family reflects concerns not only about TFR but also about maintaining a demographic balance within the country. While critics argue that the focus should be on addressing unemployment, inflation, and education, proponents of Bhagwat’s viewpoint see it as a necessary step to safeguard Bharat’s demographic future.

The Economic and Social Trade-Offs

The push for higher fertility rates in Bharat faces significant hurdles. Rising costs of living, housing constraints, and educational expenses have made smaller families the norm for many urban households. Moreover, women’s increased participation in the workforce and changing social norms have contributed to delayed marriages and fewer children.

Advocating for larger families in such a scenario requires not only a cultural shift but also robust government policies to support parents. Maternity benefits, affordable childcare, and housing incentives are some measures that could make larger families more feasible. At the same time, addressing structural issues like unemployment and inflation remains critical to ensuring that a growing population can thrive.

Striking a Balance Between Growth and Sustainability

Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on TFR is a timely reminder of the demographic challenges Bharat faces. While his call for three children per family may not resonate with all, it sparks a necessary debate on the implications of a shrinking population. Bharat’s demographic dividend has long been a key driver of its economic growth, but this advantage will diminish as the population ages and fertility declines further.

However, the solution to this issue must be multifaceted. It requires a combination of cultural awareness, policy interventions, and economic reforms to create an environment where larger families are both desirable and sustainable. At the same time, addressing regional and religious disparities in population growth is essential to fostering social harmony.

Conclusion: A Defining Challenge for Bharat’s Future

Bharat stands at a demographic crossroads. As the country grapples with the implications of declining fertility rates, leaders like Mohan Bhagwat are calling for proactive measures to ensure demographic stability. While his proposal for three children per family has sparked controversy, it highlights the urgent need to address the issue of population decline before it becomes a crisis.

The challenge for Bharat lies in balancing the need for demographic growth with the realities of modern living. By adopting forward-thinking policies and fostering a national conversation on fertility, Bharat can chart a path that ensures its demographic resilience while safeguarding its economic and social stability.