By Poonam sharma
The implications of the Bill have begun to manifest themselves over the years. Indeed, this is a major triumph for the Modi government, but having been passed in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, it has caused major problems for the BJP’s allied parties. The Aam Aadmi Party, Some of the leaders, like Nawab Malik, have also resigned. Four Muslim JDU leaders have also resigned. In that scenario, the largest question mark is: will these resignations affect Nitish Kumar in the elections? Will he be able to contain and create a winning narrative?
While it’s difficult to say until the results come out, perception does enter into it—who’s under more stress, and how they cope. BJP also was under the same pressure for so long. There used to be an understanding that there was the need for a balanced approach. Even Atal Bihari Vajpayee worked under that pressure. Whoever is labeled as a soft leader becomes soft. But during the coalition governments, BJP could not muster a majority by itself. That was the pressure. Even during Vajpayee’s or Advani’s aggressive periods, Muslims were not entirely opposed to BJP. But the constant pressure not to adopt hard Hindutva always affected their performance. Similarly, Congress was under pressure to do Muslim-centric politics and stayed under that pressure. Yet, it didn’t necessarily benefit them electorally, because Muslims vote where they see a viable option.
So long as Congress was the only alternative to BJP, it received the Muslim vote—such as in Kerala and Karnataka. But wherever another party appeared to contest Muslim votes, Congress lost strength. For instance, in Bihar, when RJD and Congress fought separately, Muslim voters were perplexed. It’s always said that Muslim votes will split, but no one says the same about Hindu votes, even though they are divided among many caste-based parties like RJD, Paswan’s party, or Manjhi’s party. But if Owaisi enters the fray, people say Muslim votes will split and BJP will benefit. So this is more about perception. The question is, will Nitish Kumar be able to resist this pressure or will he succumb again like he did prior to 2014? At that time, he was informed Muslims won’t vote for BJP.
Did there actually take place a major shift in the BJP from pre-2014 to post-2014, substantial enough to impact Nitish Kumar? When Vajpayee took power, Nitish Kumar was backing the government. Previously, when VP Singh became PM by defeating Rajiv Gandhi, BJP also backed him. At that time, Advani organized the Ram Rath Yatra to protest for the Ram temple at the Babri Masjid location. Even then, Nitish did not regard BJP as communal, even though Advani was described as a hardline Hindutva leader. The alliance was only snapped when Lalu Yadav arrested Advani. 2025 elections VP Singh enforced the recommendations of the Mandal Commission and Nitish had no problem then. Afterwards, he established the Samata Party and then the JDU. When he was in the ruling alliance with BJP, he never opposed BJP’s communal politics, although leaders such as Advani, Vajpayee, and Uma Bharti had Babri cases pending against them.
But when Narendra Modi was announced BJP’s PM candidate in 2014, Nitish alleged Muslims would be agitated and pulled out of the alliance. He gave in to that pressure. But even prior to that, he never actually received huge Muslim support. He largely received upper caste and OBC votes, since people had no other option than Lalu. Congress was faint and BJP could not go alone. Nitish had a solid OBC base. That’s the way he came to power. But he took it for granted that Muslims were voting for him. Now, when Muslim leaders quit, backing the Bill became an issue of concern. It’s not only JDU—Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP also endorsed the bill, and Andhra Pradesh has Muslims as well. But there’s no uprising in TDP, no resignations.
Consider Jayant Chaudhary’s party, for instance. It was based on the Jat-Muslim solidarity of Chaudhary Charan Singh. That solidarity fractured after the 2012 riots, and Jats turned to BJP. Ajit Singh and Jayant could not even manage Lok Sabha seats. Now Jayant is also under pressure. His Muslim leaders must be wondering why he supported the bill. But he’s thinking long-term. He experimented with SP and Congress—none succeeded. Only when he joined hands with BJP did he win 14 assembly seats. So he knows BJP is the future. There will be protests, but no resignations like in JDU.
In the case of Nitish Kumar, resignations are taking place since he had constructed an image—wearing caps, celebrating Eid, attempting to surpass Lalu in Muslim appeasement. His Muslim leaders felt they were providing votes. Even the BJP has Muslim leaders. These leaders say they bring 10–15% Muslim votes. But when we analyze the data, even Muslim BJP candidates lose in Muslim-majority areas. Shahnawaz Hussain lost from Kishanganj to a Congress candidate. The same tale is repeated in West Bengal, Kerala, Karnataka, and Maharashtra—Muslim BJP candidates fail to win. Muslims don’t vote for BJP because they’ve been deceived—that BJP will turn India into a Hindu Rashtra, that Muslims will be made second-class citizens. Owaisi uttered these words recently too.
But weren’t Muslims already made second-class citizens at Partition? Did Muslims of UP, Bihar, or Kerala protest against Partition? No—they supported it. So second-class citizenship was sealed then. Now the question is: how do you better yourself in that reality? Idealism won’t do. Even in the West—Europe, America—Christian dominance exists. Minorities don’t set policy. Democracy is numbers—majority rules. In Islamic countries like Pakistan or Bangladesh, Hindus and Sikhs are forced out. Ancient Buddhist statues were smashed in Afghanistan. But here in India, you can’t even lay hands on historical mosques. So all this talk of equality is mere illusions. People know their actual position—either in a family or nation. People are not silly. All this is politics of confusion, and Nitish Kumar is trapped in it.
He’s now mid-stream. In a couple of days, things will become clear. Now it’s clear that Muslims are moving away from him. What will Nitish do now? Even BJP has to deal with inflammatory comments from fanatic Muslim clerics. Nitish has another problem: in Muslim-dominated constituencies, BJP offers seats to JDU and asks them to do Muslim politics. If BJP fights those seats and Muslims don’t accept them, they lose. If RJD or Congress captures the Muslim vote, BJP loses too. That adds pressure on Nitish. If he leans too heavily towards BJP, his Muslim leaders will revolt. Some may even switch sides and join BJP and undermine his leadership. He’s now totally trapped.
It is for sure that Nitish would not U-turn again like 2014, and he will go ahead with BJP. Definitely BJP has some reward set for his allegiance over these years and JDU offices are already deliberating within. Nitish Kumar is also holding meetings. So, let us see what choice he takes next.
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