Maharashtra Poll Survey: MVA Expected to Outpace NDA, Congress May Emerge Largest Party
GG News Bureau
Mumbai, 10th Sept. A comprehensive survey has emerged between the Jammu-Kashmir and Haryana Assembly elections, forecasting seat distribution and key issues affecting voter sentiment in Maharashtra. The survey highlights expected performance for major political alliances: the Maha-Yuti and Maha-Vikas Aghadi (MVA), and also covers potential seat counts for non-allied parties.
The survey, conducted by Lokpoll, estimates that the MVA could secure between 141 and 154 seats in the upcoming November Assembly elections, while the Maha-Yuti might win between 115 and 128 seats. Non-allied parties are projected to capture between 5 and 18 seats.
The survey notes a potential shift in power, with the MVA likely benefiting from significant gains in Vidarbha, Marathwada, and Western Maharashtra, areas where the NDA may face substantial losses. The Maha-Yuti, comprising BJP, Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, is expected to perform better in Mumbai, Khandesh, and Konkan.
Key insights from the survey reveal that Congress could emerge as the largest party, provided it strengthens its ground-level campaigning. The survey also indicates a rise in popularity for Eknath Shinde, contrasting with a decline for Devendra Fadnavis. Issues such as rural distress, inflation, corruption, ineffective law enforcement, and rising unemployment are identified as major challenges for the BJP, contributing to growing anti-incumbency sentiment.
Expected Seats by Region:
| Region | NDA (Maha-Yuti) | MVA (India Alliance) | Others |
| Vidarbha (62) | 15-20 | 40-45 | 1-5 |
| Khandesh (47) | 20-25 | 20-25 | 0-2 |
| Thane-Konkan (39) | 25-30 | 5-10 | 1-3 |
| Mumbai (36) | 10-15 | 20-25 | 0-1 |
| Western Maharashtra (58) | 20-25 | 30-35 | 1-5 |
| Marathwada (46) | 15-20 | 25-30 | 0-2 |
| Total (288) | 115-128 | 141-154 | 5-18 |
Vote Percentage Estimate:
The survey predicts that the NDA (Maha-Yuti) could garner between 38-41% of the vote, while the MVA (India Alliance) may receive 41-44%, leaving a 3% gap between the two alliances.
The survey highlights that the BJP faces challenges from issues such as rural distress, inflation, corruption, and law and order failures, which have fueled anti-incumbency sentiment.
Additionally, grievances related to projects moving from Maharashtra to Gujarat are contributing to local dissatisfaction.
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