Maharashtra Assembly Polls: Survey Suggests Congress Could Overtake BJP

By Global Governance News On Sep 11, 2024

GG News Bureau
Mumbai, 11th Sept. The Maharashtra assembly elections are shaping up to be pivotal for both Congress and the BJP. In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP emerged as the largest party for the second consecutive term, securing 105 seats and crossing the 100-seat mark. The Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, followed with 56 seats. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) came in third with 54 seats, while Congress secured 44 seats, placing it fourth.

With the BJP preparing to retain its status as the largest party despite a significant drop from 23 to 9 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, recent surveys suggest a potential shift in the political landscape. According to the latest survey, Congress might emerge as the leading party. The survey predicts that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress, could win between 141 and 154 seats, while the Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena alliance) might secure 115 to 128 seats.

Here’s a snapshot of the last five Maharashtra assembly elections:

2019: BJP (105 seats) – Shiv Sena (56) – Chief Ministers: Uddhav Thackeray followed by Eknath Shinde (Shiv Sena)
2014: BJP (122 seats) – Shiv Sena (63) – Chief Minister: Devendra Fadnavis (BJP, full term)
2009: Congress (82 seats) – NCP (62) – Chief Ministers: Ashok Chavan/Pritviraj Chavan (Congress)
2004: NCP (71) – Congress (69) – Chief Ministers: Vilasrao Deshmukh/Ashok Chavan (Congress)
1999: Congress (75) – Shiv Sena (69) – Chief Ministers: Vilasrao Deshmukh/Sushil Kumar Shinde (Congress)

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The recent Lokpoles survey echoes the situation observed post-Lok Sabha elections but highlights a possible emergence of Congress as the leading party if it can strengthen its ground-level campaigning. In 2009, Congress was the largest party with 82 seats. Currently, Congress has 13 MPs, with the Shiv Sena and BJP each having 9 MPs. NCP, led by Sharad Pawar, has 8 MPs, while Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena has 7 MPs. Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction has 1 MP, and independent Vishal Patil from Sangli is aligned with Congress.

The survey has sparked discussions about whether the BJP will struggle to secure three-digit seats for the third consecutive time. The BJP saw a 1.66% drop in votes in the Lok Sabha elections, losing 14 seats but still garnering 26.18% of the vote. Congress came in second with 16.92% of the vote. In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP won 105 seats with 25.75% of the vote. Although pre-poll surveys have generally shown BJP as the largest party, with some projections placing its seat count below 100, the Lokpoles survey suggests that Congress could potentially become the number-one party. There are also reports of a favorable wave for Congress in Vidarbha, adding to the political intrigue.