Paromita Das
GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 6th November. The U.S. presidential election between Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has captured both national and international attention. Analysts largely predict a tight race, but some market trends have given Trump a slight edge, indicating a potential shift from current policies. A Harris presidency would likely mean a continuation of the Biden administration’s policies, especially in areas like healthcare, climate change, and social justice. On the other hand, a Trump victory could entail sweeping changes across domestic and international policies.
In this article, we’ll analyze the key policy areas and implications of a Trump or Harris presidency for the United States and its impact on the global stage, particularly with Bharat.
Kamala Harris’s Approach: Continuity in Democrat Policy
If elected, Harris is expected to largely follow in President Biden’s footsteps, reinforcing Democratic policies. These policies emphasize climate action, progressive social policies, healthcare reform, and a strong multilateral approach in foreign relations. On trade, Harris would likely continue Biden’s approach, balancing domestic job protection with global economic engagement. This outlook would likely focus on building alliances and avoiding trade conflicts, aiming to minimize tariffs and maximize diplomatic relations.
However, Harris’s foreign policy might face challenges with more assertive countries, like Russia and China. On immigration, she is expected to pursue a more inclusive policy, preserving access to programs like the H-1B visa, vital for Bharatiya professionals.
Donald Trump’s Vision: America First and Economic Protectionism
Trump’s platform centers on “America First” policies that focus on strengthening the American economy through protectionism, stricter immigration controls, and a more transactional approach to foreign relations. If re-elected, he has signaled intentions to undo many Democratic-led initiatives, emphasizing economic policies favorable to U.S. businesses.
For Bharat, Trump’s stance is complex. While he has expressed a desire to enhance U.S.-Bharat relations, his policies, particularly regarding trade and immigration, could have both positive and negative effects. His history of tariffs on foreign goods and emphasis on American manufacturing could limit Bharat’s market access, particularly in industries like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. Trump has previously called Bharat an “abuser” of tariffs, suggesting that his administration could press Bharat to make concessions or risk higher tariffs on exports.
Trump’s Relations with Bharat and PM Modi: A Strategic Bond
Donald Trump’s strong rapport with Bharatiya Prime Minister Narendra Modi is well-known. This partnership has flourished through symbolic and substantial gestures, including the “Howdy Modi” and “Namaste Trump” events. Trump has lauded Modi as a friend, and this relationship could be mutually beneficial for both leaders, as Trump’s rhetoric often emphasizes a commitment to supporting Hindu Americans and Bharat’s strategic interests.
Bharat could benefit from Trump’s opposition to China’s rising global influence. Trump’s stance on issues in the Indo-Pacific region, such as his support for the Quad security alliance, aligns closely with Bharat’s concerns about China’s growing power. His policies could pave the way for increased military cooperation between the U.S. and Bharat, focusing on countering China.
Trade and Economic Policy: Potential Strains for Bharat’s Exports
As a businessman, Trump’s economic policies prioritize U.S. interests. His stance on trade is pragmatic yet aggressive, employing tariffs as leverage to open markets for U.S. products. This approach would impact Bharat, whose exports to the U.S. are crucial for sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and technology. His potential focus on reshoring U.S. manufacturing from China offers Bharat an opportunity to attract U.S. companies looking for alternative supply chains. However, Trump’s preference for strict reciprocity could mean Bharat might have to lower its trade barriers or face potential tariffs.
Immigration Policies and Impact on Bharatiya Professionals
Trump’s stance on immigration includes plans to further tighten H-1B visa regulations, which could impact Bharatiya tech professionals significantly. During his first term, Trump’s administration increased restrictions on these visas, affecting denial rates and raising wage thresholds. Should he reintroduce these policies, Bharatiya students and professionals may find it harder to access U.S. opportunities.
Harris, however, is expected to retain more inclusive immigration policies, aiming to attract skilled workers and support visa programs like H-1B. This could provide a smoother path for Bharatiya professionals and students aspiring to work and study in the United States, contributing to both economies.
Defense and Strategic Partnerships: Aligning on Indo-Pacific Security
In terms of defense, both Trump and Harris recognize Bharat as a key ally in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump’s assertive policies against China, including his support for the Quad alliance, align closely with Bharat’s interests in maintaining regional stability. The Quad alliance—comprising the U.S., Bharat, Japan, and Australia—acts as a counterbalance to China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region, and a Trump administration could strengthen this collaboration.
Harris, while also likely to support Bharat in security matters, may favor a less confrontational approach to China. However, her administration is expected to continue expanding U.S.-Bharat defense cooperation, which has bipartisan support in Washington.
Views on China and Pakistan: Balancing Interests with Security Concerns
Trump’s strong stance against China aligns well with Bharat’s geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding border tensions. His past administration advocated for a reduced U.S. military footprint in conflict regions while supporting allies in combating terrorist threats. Trump’s previous approach towards Pakistan, which included pressuring the country via the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and cutting aid, contrasts with past U.S. administrations that relied on financial aid as leverage.
Geopolitical Strategy: Navigating the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Tensions
Trump’s approach to the Ukraine conflict has sparked debate, with his running mate indicating that Trump would negotiate for peace between Russia and Ukraine. This stance could impact global economies, including Bharat’s. The prolonged conflict has caused fluctuations in global oil prices, which have affected Bharat’s energy-dependent economy. A peace settlement could alleviate these pressures and open up trade pathways.
Harris would likely continue Biden’s support for Ukraine, contributing to U.S.-led sanctions against Russia. This stance may complicate Bharat’s neutral position, as the country has strong trade ties with Russia.
Conclusion
As the race tightens, the choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump carries profound implications for the U.S. and global landscape. A Harris presidency would likely offer stability and continuity in U.S. domestic and foreign policy, ensuring a supportive environment for Bharatiya professionals and more predictable trade relations. On the other hand, a Trump victory would signal a departure from conventional diplomatic policies, with Bharat potentially benefiting from Trump’s focus on curtailing China’s influence and deepening military cooperation.
However, Trump’s strict immigration policies could stifle Bharatiya talent in the U.S. while imposing tariffs that may challenge Bharat’s exports. Conversely, a Harris administration’s diplomatic strategies might bring long-term stability, though it could also pose challenges in maintaining a strong stance against aggressive global powers.
Ultimately, both candidates bring distinct benefits and challenges for Bharat. While Trump’s policy approach may encourage Bharat to align strategically against China, Harris offers a more measured and balanced approach. As the election draws near, Bharat and the world await the outcome, as it will undoubtedly shape the direction of U.S.-Bharat relations and the broader geopolitical landscape for years to come.
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