Gujarat Elections: Does the BJP have an advantage, or can the Congress and AAP fight back?

*Paromita Das

Earlier, on May 29, he paid visits to Rajkot and Gandhinagar to commemorate the eight-year tenure of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government at the Center. On June 18, the Prime Minister will also pay a visit to Vadodara. This brings the total number of visits to three in less than a month.

Why are we discussing the prime minister’s travel plans? Because he is not by himself. Gujarat is attracting the who’s who of Indian politics as the state prepares for assembly elections later this year. National leaders on this list include Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and AIMIM Chairman Asaduddin Owaisi.
Political parties in Gujarat have clearly entered full-fledged election mode. While traditional players such as the Congress and the BJP seek to reclaim power, new entrants such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are preparing to make a dent in the BJP’s home state ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

What is at stake in the saffron state, and what strategies have political parties brought to the battleground?

Old is gold for the BJP!

The BJP has ruled Gujarat without a break for the past 24 years, appointing five chief ministers: Keshubhai Patel, Narendra Modi, Anandiben Patel, Vijay Rupani, and Bhupendra Patel.

In September 2021, Rupani was replaced by a lesser-known, low-profile Bhupendra Patel, in an attempt to combat anti-incumbency and reclaim lost ground among the state’s critical Patidar community. The BJP is now relying heavily on PM Modi’s image to win elections.
Pradip Parmar, Minister of Social Justice and Empowerment, emphasized the work of the BJP government at the Center, dismissing claims of anti-incumbency.

“The Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre has worked to provide homes and jobs for the poor and marginalised. People have been watching his (Modi’s) work for years and will vote for the BJP with that in mind “he said.

Parmar also stated that the Bhupendra Patel Cabinet has proven its efficiency over the last six months, and that each party candidate will win by a larger margin than the previous election, “even if the elections were held today.”
Under fire for its handling of the COVID crisis and the resulting economic distress, the BJP’s top leadership, including State President CR Paatil, Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, and Home Minister Amit Shah, has devised a strategy for the upcoming elections.

In addition to the Patidars, the BJP’s priority in the state is to consolidate the tribal vote. During his visit on June 10, the prime minister will address a tribal gathering in Khudvel village, Navsari district.
This event is expected to draw people from all over the tribal belt of south Gujarat, including the districts of Tapi, Dang, and Valsad. It is worth noting that tribals in Gujarat have been dissatisfied with the now-canceled Par Tapi Narmada (PTN) project.

Congress is working – albeit slowly and steadily.

The Congress party, which had been out of power for over 27 years, was defeated by the BJP in the 2017 assembly elections by a narrow margin of 22 seats and a vote share of 7.7 percentage points. Most of the reasons to cheer for Congress, however, end here.

In the 2021 local body elections, the party had a dismal record, winning a clear majority in only one of 81 municipalities and 18 of 231 taluka panchayats.

The departure of leaders such as Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor has kept the party in the news for all the wrong reasons.
The abrupt announcement of senior leader Bharatsinh Solanki’s retirement from public life did not help the grand old party’s cause.

“Hardik (Patel) was a headache for us, and now he’ll be a headache for the BJP,” ex-PCC President Arjun Modhwadia said.
“When he joined the party after the Patidar agitation, he had some clout and was a popular leader, but he quickly lost his support base. As Hardik switched, not a single MLA or agitation leader supported him. This should tell us something, shouldn’t it? “Modhwadia elaborated.
Modhwadia claimed that Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Gujarat on May 10 and subsequent interaction with tribals boosted the cadre. Gandhi’s visit was significant because Dalits and Adivasis constitute a sizable portion of the Congress Party’s support base in Gujarat.

Modhwadia also stated that the party is primarily working away from the media spotlight, and that full-fledged rallies will begin after the monsoon.

“The Congress is organising at the grassroots level. The party’s Youth Congress, Mahila Congress, and other wings are canvassing voters door to door.”

The Key to AAP’s National Goals

Following a massive victory in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party is now making the right noise in Gujarat, with Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia, and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann visiting the state on various occasions to address the people.

The party dissolved its entire unit in the state after a 21-day parivartan yatra through 600 villages. “We will form a new team based on the feedback we received from the parivartan yatra. In Gujarat, the party’s structure will be completely overhauled “Gulab Singh Yadav, former AAP state incharge, stated.
According to party sources, Arvind Kejriwal has directed his trusted and closest aides to ensure that the AAP has one representative in each booth in Gujarat by the first week of July.
In May, the AAP partnered with the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to capture tribal votes in the state. The party is also reaching out to the Patidar community through roadshows and rallies attended by Kejriwal.

Given its strong showing in the 2021 local body elections, where it won just one seat but received 21% of the vote in Gandhinagar, it is clear that the AAP is hoping to capitalize on the anti-BJP vote that the Congress is unable to consolidate.
This election will also be important for the AAP’s national ambitions, as it seeks to expand beyond Delhi and Punjab.

The Muslim Vote and AIMIM

AIMIM President Asaduddin Owaisi addressed public gatherings in Ahmedabad and Chappi in the Banaskantha district’s Vadgam Taluka. Chappi was at the epicentre of Gujarat’s anti-CAA protests.

It is significant that, even as AIMIM expands its base in Muslim-majority areas of the state, the party has decided to field candidates from Hindu pockets in an attempt to shed the label of “minority party.”

Owaisi stated in his May address that the party is open to forming alliances with regional forces. He also mentioned that party leaders must focus on all communities and not just Muslims.
Previously, AIMIM had won 25 corporate seats in Gujarat’s local body elections, establishing its presence in the saffron state.

The Importance of BTP

The Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), led by Bhil leader Chhotubhai Vasava and his son Mahesh Vasava, is a key regional player representing the state’s tribal population.

Chottubhai from Jhagadia in Bharuch and Mahesh from Dediapada in Narmada district represent the party in the Gujarat assembly.
The BTP allied with the Congress ahead of the 2017 assembly elections. but the equation quickly turned sour in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the Congress rejected Chhotubhai’s proposal to support him from the Bharuch seat and instead fielded their own candidate, making it a triangular contest between the BJP, Congress, and BTP.

In 2020, the two parties severed ties.

The BTP then ran in the 2021 district and taluka panchayat elections with Owaisi’s AIMIM, and was nearly wiped out in the Narmada region.
From 12 seats in 2015, the party was reduced to two in Dediapada taluka panchayat after failing to win a single seat in Garudeshwar.
However, in May 2022, the party joined forces with Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP in an attempt to reclaim lost ground.