Economic Survey 2024-25: India Projects 6.4% GDP Growth Amid Global Economic Shifts

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 31st Jan. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday presented the Economic Survey 2024-25, outlining India’s economic outlook, achievements, and policy measures aimed at reinforcing the nation’s growth trajectory.

Real GDP and Growth Projections
India’s real GDP is estimated to grow at 6.4% for FY25, as per the first advance estimates, in line with its decadal average. Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is also projected to expand at 6.4%. For FY26, GDP growth is expected to range between 6.3% and 6.8%. The survey underscores the importance of grassroots-level structural reforms and deregulation to foster medium-term growth and enhance global competitiveness.

Global Trends and Geopolitical Shifts
The survey highlights the rise of Geo-Economic Fragmentation (GEF), shifting away from globalization, signaling potential economic realignments. The global economy’s growth in 2023 stood at 3.3%, slightly ahead of the IMF’s 3.2% projection for the next five years.

Capital Expenditure and Infrastructure Growth
Capital expenditure (CAPEX) has been on an upward trajectory from FY21 to FY24, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% post-general elections. The government’s capital expenditure on key infrastructure sectors grew by 38.8% from FY20 to FY24, and the Union Government has focused on enhancing infrastructure connectivity with substantial additions to railways, roads, and renewable energy sectors.

Inflation and Monetary Policy
Retail inflation softened from 5.4% in FY24 to 4.9% in FY25 (April–December 2024). The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project that consumer price inflation will align with the 4% target by FY26. Bank credit has exhibited steady growth, with a significant decline in non-performing assets (NPAs), which reached a 12-year low of 2.6% in September 2024.

Exports and Foreign Trade
India’s exports saw a 6% overall increase in FY25, with services exports expanding by 11.6%. The country emerged as the world’s second-largest exporter in telecommunications, computer, and information services. The Foreign Exchange (Forex) reserves stood at USD 640.3 billion as of December 2024, enough to cover 10.9 months of imports.

Innovation and Self-Reliance
India’s innovation landscape continues to thrive, with the country ranking 6th globally in patent filings, according to the WIPO 2022 report. The government has launched the ₹50,000 crore Self-Reliant India Fund to provide equity funding to MSMEs and foster innovation. The survey also revealed a drastic reduction in smartphone imports, with 99% now being domestically manufactured.

Services and Employment
The services sector continued to drive India’s export growth, with a remarkable 12.8% increase in services exports during April–November FY25. The unemployment rate has decreased to 3.2% in 2023-24, down from 6.0% in 2017-18. The government’s PM-Internship Scheme has played a pivotal role in generating employment opportunities.

Social Services and Infrastructure Development
The government has ramped up its focus on social services, with an annual growth rate of 15% in social services expenditure from FY21 to FY25. Key initiatives such as the Jal Jeevan Mission, Swachh Bharat Mission, and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana have improved rural and urban infrastructure, with 12 crore households now receiving piped drinking water and 89 lakh houses completed under the housing scheme.

Outlook for the Future
India is poised to continue its upward trajectory, with a growth rate target of around 8% to realize the vision of a “Viksit Bharat” by 2047. The focus will be on deregulation, creating a conducive environment for SMEs, and investing in infrastructure. The government is also driving forward ambitious space projects, including the Gaganyaan mission and Chandrayaan-4.

The Economic Survey 2024-25 reaffirms India’s resilience amidst global economic challenges and sets a clear path for sustained growth and innovation in the years ahead.