Decoding Maharashtra’s Assembly Elections: Strategic Negotiations and Seat-Sharing Dilemmas

Former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray’s recent visit to Delhi to meet key figures like Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, and Sharad Pawar highlights the high stakes involved as the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or INDIA bloc strategizes to challenge the ruling Mahayuti/National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The opposition alliance, comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray, or UBT), and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), aims to leverage the momentum from the 2024 general elections to combat the BJP-led coalition, which also includes the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar). This move comes in response to growing anti-incumbency sentiments against the NDA government.

Disparities in 2024 General Elections:

In the 2024 general elections, the Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 21 seats, the Congress 17, and the NCP (SP) 10. The Shiv Sena (UBT) had a lower strike rate, winning only 43% of the seats it contested compared to Congress and NCP (SP), which had strike rates of 76% and 80% respectively. This disparity has led to discord among the alliance partners, with the Congress and NCP (SP) questioning the allocation of seats and pushing for a revised distribution strategy for the assembly elections.

Seat-Sharing Plans Under Consideration:

Equal Distribution:
One proposed formula suggests dividing the 288 assembly seats roughly into three equal parts, with each party (Sena (UBT), NCP (SP), and Congress) contesting around 90-95 seats. This approach is supported by the similar vote shares of the parties in the 2019 assembly polls.

Historical Performance-Based Allocation:
Another formula considers the results of the 2019 elections where Sena (pre-split) won 56 seats, NCP (pre-split) 54 seats, and Congress 44 seats. These 154 seats would be prioritized, with the remaining 134 seats allocated based on current strengths, historical performance, and recent general election outcomes. Local dynamics, such as support for factions of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, will play a crucial role.

Influence-Based Distribution:
This method assesses party influence based on past election results. In 2019, the Congress had influence over 113 seats, Sena 110, and NCP 101, totaling 324 seats. Adjustments are made for overlaps, resulting in 253 seats of interest, leaving 35 seats for further negotiation.

Strength Scanner Approach:
The strength scanner approach identifies 137 seats that parties have consistently won in recent elections, with Sena claiming 50, Congress 44, and NCP 43. Additional moderate seats won once by these parties in the past three elections total 304 seats, providing a broad base for negotiations.

Regional Considerations:

Regional strengths further complicate seat-sharing. The Congress has a stronghold in Vidarbha, parts of Mumbai, and Marathwada; the Sena dominates Mumbai and Thane-Konkan; and the NCP is influential in Western Maharashtra and parts of North Maharashtra.

Challenges and Opportunities:

The INDIA bloc sees an opportunity to capitalize on its strong Lok Sabha performance, aiming for a well-coordinated seat-sharing strategy to enhance its prospects. However, maintaining unity and focusing on the broader electoral strategy remain crucial. The NDA is also grappling with ticket distribution, adding another layer of complexity to the election preparations.

As the parties navigate these negotiations, the outcome will significantly impact the political dynamics in Maharashtra, setting the stage for a pivotal assembly election.