Amendment bill in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, which is now pending presidential assent to become a law. In spite of its passage, opposition to the bill is still strong, and there is significant dissent within opposition parties.
One significant development is the infighting within the Congress party, as some leaders criticize the party’s opposition to the bill. Although some Congress leaders, such as Jairam Ramesh, have said they plan to challenge the bill in the Supreme Court, there is internal conflict among leaders from Hindu-dominated constituencies and those who have a Muslim constituency. Some Congress leaders fear that a direct emphasis on Muslim causes can hurt Hindu voters, and as a result, the party’s political fortunes.
Additionally, the bill has caused upheaval within the Janata Dal (United) (JDU), with five leaders resigning in protest. The key concern is whether this internal rebellion will impact Bihar politics, given that elections are approaching. However, Nitish Kumar seems to have accepted that the state’s political direction has shifted and is focusing on securing Hindu votes rather than Muslim support. His party spokesmen have minimized the effect of the resignations, claiming that the party is still dedicated to secular rule.
On the ruling side, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are generally in line, although some of the allies seem to be in a daze about where they stand. Party leaders like Jayant Chaudhary and Chandrababu Naidu are facing rebellion within their parties for their backing of the bill. This daze, however, is not likely to have much of an impact on the BJP.
Disunity in the opposition was seen in the Parliament as most opposition MPs did not show up or voted for the bill. Opposition leader Sharad Pawar did not vote, and two Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) members failed to show up for the vote. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Shibu Soren also abstained from voting. Also, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing internal dissension since two of its Rajya Sabha MPs, Sanjeev Arora and Harbhajan Singh, abstained from voting.
The opposition also intended to defeat the bill in Rajya Sabha but did so by falling short on account of factional divisions and absence. Congress and other opposition parties, intent on challenging the bill in the Supreme Court, want to appear as champions of minority rights. Critics contend, however, that their main purpose is political propaganda and not due to legalistic concerns.
Analysts say that the Supreme Court is likely to grant the petition a hearing but will not go against the administration. Traditionally, the Court has dealt with such constitutional challenges warily, frequently ruling in favor of legislative amendments. The bill’s deliberation continues to lay bare political realignments, most notably in the opposition, as parties also try to determine their position on minority rights and election strategy.
In short, though the amendment bill has been passed, it has caused massive political realignments, opposition splits, and a strategic change in Bihar politics. The Supreme Court challenge could extend the debate, but Congress’s prospects of success look dim.
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