Bharat’s Review of 1960 Indus Waters Treaty: A Strategic Shift That Could Rattle Pakistan

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau

New Delhi, 21st September. In a bold and decisive move, Bharat has officially sought a review of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a water-sharing agreement that has governed the use of river waters between Bharat and Pakistan for over six decades. On August 30, 2024, Bharat sent a formal notice to Pakistan, signaling its intent to revisit the terms of the treaty. While Pakistan may have had a fair idea that such a move was on the horizon, the reality of this development could have profound implications for its water security and the broader geopolitics of the region.

The decision comes amid growing frustrations within Bharat over Pakistan’s continued support for terrorist activities across the border, especially in Jammu and Kashmir. The Modi government has made it clear that the treaty, negotiated in a vastly different era, no longer reflects the current geopolitical, environmental, and security realities of the subcontinent. The call for a review underscores Bharat’s need to prioritize its domestic interests, particularly in the face of significant demographic changes, increased agricultural demands, and the need to boost clean energy production to meet global climate commitments.

At the heart of this shift lies a critical question: Can a water-sharing agreement drafted in 1960 continue to serve the needs of a rapidly changing world, where population growth, environmental challenges, and security concerns are vastly different from what they were six decades ago? Bharat’s notification marks the beginning of what could be a significant reconfiguration of the water-sharing arrangement between the two neighbors, further complicating an already fraught relationship.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Brief History

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 between Bharat and Pakistan, facilitated by the World Bank, to resolve disputes over water usage between the two countries. Under the agreement, control over the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—was allocated to Pakistan, while Bharat retained control over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. The treaty has survived despite multiple wars and periods of heightened tension between the two countries, earning a reputation as one of the most successful international water agreements.

The treaty was designed to ensure that both nations could utilize the river systems without causing harm to each other’s interests. However, recent developments—both internal and external—have led Bharat to question the viability of continuing with the same terms, leading to the formal review notice.

Bharat’s Rationale for Seeking a Review

Bharat has outlined several key reasons for revisiting the Indus Waters Treaty, citing significant shifts in the domestic, regional, and global landscape:

  1. Demographic Changes and Agricultural Needs: Since the treaty was signed in 1960, Bharat’s population has more than tripled, and its agricultural needs have expanded exponentially. The current agreement, which allocates a large share of the water to Pakistan, is viewed as inadequate to meet the demands of Bharat’s growing population and agricultural sectors.
  2. Clean Energy Development: Bharat is committed to achieving ambitious renewable energy goals, particularly in the field of hydropower. The restricted use of water from the western rivers under the current treaty hinders Bharat’s ability to harness clean energy sources. In the context of global climate change initiatives and Bharat’s pledge to reduce carbon emissions, the need for greater control over water resources is seen as crucial.
  3. Cross-Border Terrorism: One of the most contentious issues between Bharat and Pakistan is the persistent problem of terrorism originating from Pakistani soil. Bharat has long accused Pakistan of supporting terrorist organizations that destabilize the region, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. The Modi government has pointed to Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism as a key factor in its decision to reassess the treaty. The argument is that it is unfair for Bharat to uphold its obligations under the treaty when Pakistan continues to undermine Bharat’s security.

The Growing Discontent in Jammu and Kashmir

The state of Jammu and Kashmir, which has borne the brunt of the conflict between Bharat and Pakistan, has been particularly vocal about the need to review the treaty. Many people in the region feel that the 1960 agreement was made without adequate consultation and that it unfairly limited their access to local water resources. This sentiment has grown stronger over the years, particularly as water shortages have become more frequent in the region.

Critics argue that while Pakistan benefits from the lion’s share of the water from the Indus system, regions like Jammu and Kashmir, where the rivers originate, face restrictions on their own use of the water. This has fueled demands for greater local control over the water resources and an overhaul of the treaty.

Pakistan’s Concerns

Pakistan, a lower riparian state in the Indus basin, is naturally concerned about any attempt by Bharat to renegotiate the treaty. The waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers are vital to Pakistan’s agriculture and drinking water supplies. Any changes to the treaty that reduce Pakistan’s share of these rivers could have catastrophic consequences for its food security and economy.

Moreover, water has always been a sensitive issue in the Bharat-Pakistan relationship, and Islamabad sees any move by Bharat to review the treaty as an attempt to exert geopolitical pressure. For Pakistan, the Indus Waters Treaty has been a lifeline, particularly given the country’s heavy dependence on agriculture. The country views any modification of the treaty as a potential threat to its sovereignty and survival.

The International Dimension

The Indus Waters Treaty was mediated by the World Bank, and any changes to the agreement could have international repercussions. In recent years, water disputes have gained more attention on the global stage, with experts predicting that water scarcity could become a major driver of conflict in the 21st century. Bharat’s move to revisit the treaty could therefore set a precedent for other countries facing similar issues, particularly in regions where water resources are shared across borders.

Additionally, the geopolitical tensions between Bharat and Pakistan are likely to attract the attention of major global powers, including the United States, China, and Russia. Any escalation of the water dispute could destabilize the region further, particularly in the context of existing tensions over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism.

Strategic Implications for Bharat and Pakistan

For Bharat, seeking a review of the Indus Waters Treaty is part of a broader strategy to assert its dominance in the region and address long-standing concerns about Pakistan’s support for terrorism. By revisiting the treaty, Bharat is sending a clear message to Pakistan that it will no longer tolerate business as usual, particularly in light of the ongoing security threats posed by cross-border terrorism.

At the same time, Bharat’s move is a reflection of the changing global reality. With water resources becoming scarcer and climate change exacerbating water-related challenges, Bharat recognizes the need to secure its own access to vital resources. The Modi government’s emphasis on self-sufficiency and strategic autonomy is also reflected in this decision, as it seeks to assert Bharat’s rights over its own water resources.

For Pakistan, the stakes are equally high. The country is already facing a severe water crisis, with groundwater levels depleting rapidly and the risk of desertification looming large. Any reduction in its share of the Indus waters would exacerbate these problems, potentially leading to widespread social unrest and economic collapse. Pakistan will likely push back strongly against any attempts to alter the treaty, viewing it as a matter of national survival.

Conclusion

Bharat’s decision to review and potentially modify the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty is a bold and strategic move that could have wide-reaching consequences. While Pakistan may have seen this coming, the formal notification marks a significant escalation in the long-standing rivalry between the two neighbors. The Modi government’s decision reflects both Bharat’s frustration with Pakistan’s support for terrorism and its desire to secure water resources for its growing population and energy needs.

The review of the treaty is a necessary step for Bharat. The treaty, signed more than 60 years ago, was created in a different geopolitical and environmental context. Given the changes in demographics, the need for clean energy, and the ongoing threat of terrorism, Bharat has legitimate reasons to seek a modification of the agreement. However, the process of renegotiation must be handled carefully to avoid further destabilizing an already volatile region. Both countries must engage in constructive dialogue, with the involvement of international mediators if necessary, to ensure that any changes to the treaty are fair and do not lead to conflict.

Ultimately, while the review of the Indus Waters Treaty may rattle Pakistan, it is a necessary and strategic move for Bharat, one that reflects the changing realities of the 21st century.

 

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