Bangladesh Toward General Elections: Reform, Controversy, and Uncertainty

New Delhi: Bangladesh, a nation that has experienced tremendous political tumult over the past few years, is indicating a possible drift toward general elections later in 2025. Yet, this probable change depends on political talks and reform, as a politically fragmented scenario paves the way for a precarious future.

Professor Muhammad Yunus, who became the head of an interim government after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was removed from office during a mass student-led movement in mid-2024, has been loud in advocating for across-the-board reforms in several sectors. While the path to polls seems open, it is fraught with political and administrative problems that might define Bangladesh’s course of action over the next few years.

The 12th Parliamentary election, which was conducted on January 7, 2024, was dominated by Prime Minister Hasina’s Awami League party unilaterally. Yet, political turbulence soon erupted when opposition parties questioned the election process. A movement that was based on a broad spectrum led by student organizations caused the removal of Hasina’s government, which led to the formation of an interim government under Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus. Since assuming office, Yunus has advocated a series of sweeping reforms in the nation’s civil administration, judiciary, anti-corruption agencies, financial institutions, and electoral processes.

In a recent address, Professor Yunus reiterated his determination to pursue meaningful reforms in the nation, emphasizing that the new government’s primary concern would be to ensure the future viability of Bangladesh’s democratic processes. Yunus is convinced that reforms are crucial to guarantee the stability and development of the country. Among the most important reforms on the agenda are those related to the organization of the country’s political and electoral systems, which he asserts are necessary to guarantee transparency and equity in the next elections.

Bangladesh’s interim government is already busy ensuring that the country becomes ready to go to polls after the December 2025 elections, a calendar that would continue to frame political life of the nation well into the foreseeable future. Yunus-led caretaker government’s plans are to fashion a political environment conducive to exchange of words across all the major political parties with an active push for administrative overhaul in the short term.

But the path to a peaceful and just election in Bangladesh is full of obstacles. One of the most important factors in this regard is the National Consensus Commission, an institution established to create a platform for dialogue between the government and political parties in the nation. The commission, headed by Yunus, has interacted with more than 20 political parties such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Bangladesh Jamaat-e Islami, and the recently established National Citizen Party (NCP). The parties have complained about the current electoral system and have made their suggestions on how to modify it. The commission is also likely to engage in more talks with other political players in the next few weeks as it works to achieve a consensus on electoral reforms that are required.

In its latest message, the commission issued a package of suggestions to more than 35 political parties. The suggestions are based on the recommendations of five reform commissions on different aspects of the governance system: constitutional reforms, public administration, electoral reforms, judicial reforms, and administrative reforms. The suggestions are indicative of the increasing urgency for reform within Bangladesh’s politics. One key obstacle is still there, however: the involvement of the Awami League in the next election.

So far, the Awami League, the ruling party of Bangladesh for the last three terms, has not yet been discussed. But Yunus has just made a statement stating that the interim government has no plans for the Awami League to be disqualified to contest in the next elections. Instead, Yunus offered that party officials, such as Hasina, who have been charged with corruption and other crimes against the people, would have to stand trial for their wrongdoings. This stance has not been free of controversy, as most political leaders, particularly those involved in the revolution to overthrow Hasina, have complained about Yunus’s soft attitude toward the Awami League. Some of its critics, and even some leaders of the opposition parties, have gone so far as to allege that Yunus is plotting to restore the Awami League under another name, perhaps as a “Refined Awami League.” There are claims that Bangladesh’s military leader, Waker Uz Zaman, is secretly maneuvering for this to happen, and that such an action would open the way for the return of Hasina from her present exile in India.

These accusations have ignited fierce controversies, with NCP convener Nahid Islam going to the extent of calling for a lifelong ban on the Awami League. Islam has publicly criticized the Awami League as a “fascist party” and issued warnings against attempts to rehabilitate it. Likewise, Jamaat-e Islami leader Shafiqur Rahman has also strongly opposed any attempt to bring Hasina’s party back into the political mainstream, stating that the people of Bangladesh will never agree to it. Even in the face of these bitter arguments, the Bangladesh military has unequivocally ruled out getting involved in the political process, asserting that they have no desire to support a specific political party. The position of the armed forces has been unequivocal: it will not take sides and will not get involved in the country’s politics.

In the midst of this explosive political climate, Professor Yunus is also concentrating on foreign affairs.

He will meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bangkok during the forthcoming Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) summit, which will take place on April 2-4, 2025. The two leaders are likely to discuss major issues concerning bilateral relations, such as trade and regional security. But political analysts predict that the tense state of relations between New Delhi and Dhaka—particularly because of Hasina’s ongoing exile in India—may complicate whatever talks may happen. S. Jaishankar, India’s Foreign Minister, has acknowledged the plan for the meeting is being considered, but in the backdrop of politics, whether the meeting will happen is still unclear. With Bangladesh eying the possibility of polls in 2025, the fate of the country hangs in balance.

The political atmosphere is polarized, and the future course of the country could be affected by the implications of the reform process currently in progress. It is unclear whether the nation would be able to transition to a new government in a peaceful manner, or whether the fundamental splits would thwart advancements. The next few months will be pivotal in determining Bangladesh’s political destiny as it gears up for one of the most keenly awaited elections in its history.