Arvind Kejriwal’s Solo Gamble: The AAP-Congress Rift and Its Political Fallout

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 12^th Dec. Arvind Kejriwal’s decision to go it alone in the upcoming 2025 Delhi assembly elections has once again disrupted the political landscape of the capital. This bold announcement not only highlights AAP’s growing confidence in its governance model but also exposes the underlying fissures within the opposition’s INDIA bloc. By refusing an alliance with the Congress, Mr. Kejriwal has set the stage for a high-stakes electoral battle that could reshape Delhi’s political dynamics while presenting both opportunities and risks for his party.

For the Aam Aadmi Party, this move marks a continuation of its decade-long dominance in Delhi. Since its meteoric rise in 2015, AAP has systematically eroded the Congress’s once-unassailable voter base while positioning itself as the principal challenger to the BJP in the capital. Back-to-back electoral victories in 2015 and 2020 cemented AAP as the favored choice of Delhiites, driven by its governance model centered on education, healthcare, and public services. Mr. Kejriwal’s decision to shun the Congress now signals an unwavering belief that AAP’s achievements are enough to secure a third consecutive term, without the need for alliances.

This decision, however, is not merely about confidence in governance; it reflects a calculated political strategy. The Congress, once Delhi’s dominant force, has been reduced to irrelevance over the past decade, struggling to revive its voter base and narrative. Despite efforts like padyatras and grassroots campaigns, the party has failed to gain meaningful traction. For AAP, aligning with a weakened Congress may have been seen as an unnecessary risk, especially after the Congress denied AAP a seat-sharing arrangement in Haryana during recent elections. Mr. Kejriwal’s rejection of an alliance is both an act of political reciprocity and a message of self-reliance, positioning AAP as an equal—if not dominant—player within the INDIA bloc.

However, this decision is not without risks. By contesting independently, AAP risks splitting the opposition vote in Delhi, a scenario that could favor the BJP. The Congress, while weakened, still retains a modest base in some constituencies. A three-way contest between AAP, BJP, and Congress could dilute anti-BJP votes, providing the saffron party with a potential advantage in a closely fought election. This fragmentation underscores a persistent weakness within the opposition: the inability to set aside differences and present a united front against a well-organized BJP machinery.

For the BJP, this development may serve as a strategic boon. Armed with centralized leadership and disciplined organizational strength, the BJP thrives in scenarios where opposition votes are divided. While it has yet to make significant inroads in Delhi assembly elections, the fractured opposition landscape could provide the party with a renewed opportunity to challenge AAP’s dominance. The BJP will likely frame the election around issues such as governance controversies, including the recent excise policy case that has drawn criticism toward the AAP government.

For AAP, Mr. Kejriwal’s gamble places enormous pressure to consolidate its voter base. The party will need to counter not only BJP’s attacks but also the perception that its refusal to ally with Congress could harm the larger opposition cause. AAP’s ability to navigate these challenges will depend on its capacity to sustain the goodwill it has cultivated among Delhiites while addressing vulnerabilities that may arise in the heat of the campaign.

The broader implications of this decision extend beyond Delhi. The INDIA bloc, envisioned as a coalition of opposition forces against the BJP, faces a glaring challenge: managing internal rivalries and balancing individual ambitions. Mr. Kejriwal’s decision underscores the difficulty of uniting diverse political players with conflicting regional interests and visions. While the BJP presents a cohesive narrative under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the opposition continues to grapple with coordination and trust issues, which weaken its collective appeal.

Ultimately, Mr. Kejriwal’s decision to reject an alliance with the Congress is both a demonstration of confidence in AAP’s political standing and a calculated risk. It underscores AAP’s belief in its governance model and its desire to project itself as a self-reliant political force. However, the fractured opposition landscape and the potential for vote-splitting could hand the BJP an advantage, reshaping the narrative of Delhi’s politics yet again.

As Delhi heads into another fiercely contested election, the stakes for all players are immense. For Mr. Kejriwal and AAP, the challenge lies in reaffirming their dominance while navigating the pitfalls of a solo campaign. For Congress, the election represents a fight for survival in a city where it was once unchallenged. And for the BJP, this is an opportunity to exploit opposition disunity and reassert itself in a region where it has struggled to gain traction.

In the end, the capital’s voters will have the final say, and their verdict will determine whether AAP’s bold gamble pays off or whether the BJP emerges as the unlikely beneficiary of an opposition divided against itself.