Bharat’s Strategic Masterstroke: How Dhaka’s Gamble with Beijing is Backfiring

Poonam Sharma In the constantly changing environment of South Asian geopolitics, there is one reality emerging more clearly by the day: Bharat is not the forgiving older brother it used to be. As Bangladesh, spurred on by Professor Muhammad Yunus and discreet Chinese machinations, strays from its historic orientation, Bharat is reacting—not with bluster, but with technical skill, strategy, and a discreet but unmistakable demonstration of strength.

The warning signs existed all along. As soon as the U.S. started recalculating its South Asia position in the era of the Trump administration, Bangladesh read the wrong signals. Convinced to remain on track with Washington, Dhaka otherwise found itself getting progressively isolated instead. In that vacuum, China seized the chance—and Bangladesh, enticed by assurances of investments and infrastructure, rolled out the welcome mat. In a low-profile visit to China, Yunus uttered a chilling and highly provocative remark: that Bharat was “blocking” the Chicken’s Neck (Siliguri Corridor), and that Bangladesh would help Beijing circumvent Bharat to create a trade corridor. The implications were nothing less than a threat to Bharat’s sovereignty. To put this in perspective, the Chicken’s Neck is a thin but strategic strip that links mainland Bharat to its northeastern states. Diplomatic or military efforts to refute it are a red line. 

But that flip had an outcome.Muted responses were possibly expected from Dhaka, but Bharat dealt with quiet assertiveness. The high-level delegation made Bharat’s position clearly understood in one meeting: political posturing through such language—particularly by one representing the government—is not permissible. This wasn’t posturing politically—it was a warning that was sovereign in nature.

But India wasn’t silent. After this, there was a meeting involving PM Modi and U.S. officials, where India clarified they hadn’t commented on Sheikh Hasina. India denied raising such topics altogether.

Bharat withdrew Bangladesh’s special shipment facility on April 8. This facility had enabled Dhaka to export through Bharatiya ports, especially its textile industry, which contributes 80–85% of Bangladesh’s GDP. Bharat had granted zero-duty trade and subsidized shipping, especially through Kolkata ports and the northeastern corridor.

From now on, Bangladesh can only use Bharatiya routes for trade destined for landlocked countries like Nepal and Bhutan—not for its broader exports. This move, though subtle, delivers a crippling economic blow to Bangladesh. Textile giants like Raymond have already begun pulling investments, signaling what could be a devastating chain reaction in an already fragile economy.

Meanwhile, Bharat’s own textile industry is booming. Ever since last May, exports have increased by 8%, moving steadily towards the $100 billion threshold. Here is where former U.S. trade policy under Trump comes into play. While import tariffs of America remain at 26% for Bharatiya products, Bangladeshi products are hit with a whopping 37%. Add to that increased logistics expenses and the loss of access to Bharatiya ports, and it is evident: Bharatiya textile dominance is reasserting itself , made possible by astute policy and better infrastructure.

Bharat has fielded state-of-the-art defense equipment such as the S-400 air defense system and strengthened troop presence at Panagarh, protecting Chicken’s Neck better than ever before. The Mountain Division stands ever vigilant, with the capability to nullify any foreign threat emanating from Bangladesh in 48 hours—without needing even a single missile or bomb. Yet Bharat realizes that military force is merely one among several.

A second weapon—one possibly greater than the first—is control of the rivers.Fifty-four rivers flow from Bharat into Bangladesh. Although Bangladesh has a deal with China regarding flood warnings, it does not have one with Bharat. This means that Bharat gets to keep its important water flow in its control. Although Bharat hasn’t militarized water yet, the option is on the table, and Dhaka is aware of this.

China, meanwhile, has been quietly constructing an airbase close to Lalmonirhat in northern Bangladesh. Bharat reacted not with alarm, but diplomacy. Suggestions to revisit and settle formally issues of river-sharing are already afloat. The message is out: Bharat favors peace—but is not fearful of pressure.

Economically, Bangladesh is falling apart. With foreign investors withdrawing and inflation running amok, protests have broken out. Anti-Israel protests recently degenerated into riots, with showrooms and fast food restaurants being looted. Desperation is mounting, and so is the nostalgia for the Sheikh Hasina days—when at least food, fuel, and fish were affordable.

Domestically, Bangladesh is coming apart. BNP has threatened a national uprising unless Yunus resigns. Meanwhile, Bharat maintains its diplomatic overtures—pursuing middle ground, eschewing military escalation, and allowing Bangladesh’s internal contradictions to do the heavy lifting.

Yunus might find himself taking a private jet to France earlier than anticipated, leaving a Bangladesh much weaker than he inherited. China won’t come to save him—history proves it did not assist Pakistan in either war with Bharat. Beijing invests and commits, but it never bleeds for its allies.

Bharat, however, is taking the long haul. The army chief it had tactically backed was recently rescued from the Central African Republic, escaping a pro-Pakistan element. This low-key move reflects Bharat’s increasing clout in Dhaka’s power elites—even when it’s not hitting the headlines.

The next significant milestone will arrive post-monsoon, when Bharat, if necessary, can further ramp up pressure. In the meantime, it will keep straining Bangladesh economically, diplomatically, and geopolitically—awaiting internal fissures to hit their breaking point.

The message is clear: Bharat is not the patient elder brother anymore. It is the resurgent power of the subcontinent—disciplined, ready, and unshakeably quiet. Bangladesh risked its geography and friendships. But Bharat, through its combination of economic prudence, military preparedness, and diplomatic maturity, is demonstrating why it remains **the central pillar of stability in South Asia.

In today’s world, strength is not always about action—it’s about positioning, preparation, and resolve. And Bharat has all three.