Sri Lanka on the Brink: Brewing Discontent in the Military and the Shadow of a Coup

Paromita Das

GG News Bureau
New Delhi, 4^th Jan.  Sri Lanka’s political landscape has always been volatile, but recent developments suggest the nation could be heading toward one of its most defining moments. With whispers of a potential military coup growing louder, the situation is not merely a domestic crisis; it is a geopolitical chessboard where global powers like the U.S. and China are maneuvering for influence. The backdrop is a country struggling to recover from economic collapse, burdened by political rivalries, and caught in the crosshairs of international strategies.

A Leftist President and a Shifting Power Dynamic

Sri Lanka’s current President, who emerged from the ranks of the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), has embarked on an aggressive campaign to dismantle the influence of the Rajapaksa family, who dominated Sri Lankan politics for decades. This has included slashing security privileges for the Rajapaksas, purging their loyalists from government positions, and reversing many policies enacted during their reign.

One of the most contentious moves has been his plan to retire a large portion of the military. The Rajapaksas had massively expanded the armed forces, citing the threat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), long after the group was militarily defeated in 2009. This bloated military, though no longer necessary for counterinsurgency operations, has become a financial burden on the nation’s already strained economy.

While these measures have earned the President praise from those seeking a break from the Rajapaksa era, they have also sown deep divisions within the military. Many of the soldiers set to be retired are fiercely loyal to the Rajapaksas, who are now reportedly cooperating with external forces to stage a political comeback.

The Brewing Storm Within the Military

The dissatisfaction within Sri Lanka’s military is palpable. Soldiers who once stood as defenders of the Rajapaksa regime now face forced retirements, and their discontent is being amplified by external forces. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), always vigilant for opportunities to exert influence, appears to be capitalizing on this unrest. Reports suggest that the Rajapaksas have signaled their willingness to cooperate with the CIA in organizing a coup against the current administration.

The potential for a coup is bolstered by the fact that many mid- and high-ranking officers in the military remain staunchly loyal to the Rajapaksa family. These officers are reportedly being mobilized to act when the time is deemed right. The possibility of a coup thus emerges as not just a response to domestic discontent but also as part of a broader geopolitical maneuver.

Geopolitics at Play: The U.S., China, and Bharat

Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean has long made it a point of interest for global powers. The United States, for decades, has sought access to a naval and airbase near Trincomalee, one of the world’s finest natural harbors. Such a base would strengthen the U.S.’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly as tensions with China escalate.

However, successive Sri Lankan governments, under pressure from Bharat, have resisted U.S. overtures. Bharat views Sri Lanka as firmly within its sphere of influence and has been wary of any move that could allow external powers to establish a military presence in its backyard.

China, meanwhile, has deepened its footprint in Sri Lanka through massive infrastructure investments under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Projects such as the Hambantota Port and Colombo Port City have cemented Beijing’s economic and strategic interests in the island nation. A pro-China government in Colombo ensures continued access for Beijing, much to the displeasure of Washington and New Delhi.

The current President, perceived as pro-China due to his leftist roots, is unlikely to pivot toward the U.S. willingly. A military coup, however, could pave the way for a more U.S.-friendly regime, potentially overturning decades of resistance to American military ambitions in Sri Lanka.

The Rajapaksas’ Role: Opportunism or Nationalism?

The Rajapaksas have always been adept at reading the political winds and leveraging them to their advantage. Having lost power amid widespread public protests and economic turmoil, they are now positioning themselves as potential saviors of the nation’s sovereignty and stability. Their cooperation with the CIA may be seen as an opportunistic move to regain power, but it also risks undermining their nationalist credentials, given the widespread suspicion of American motives in the region.

If the Rajapaksas do succeed in orchestrating a coup, it will not only be a dramatic political comeback but also a turning point for Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. The question remains: Will they align with the U.S. to secure their return to power, or will they attempt to balance their historical ties with China and Bharat?

The Bharatiya Dilemma: Protecting Regional Stability

For Bharat, the prospect of a coup in Sri Lanka poses a significant challenge. New Delhi has long sought to counter China’s influence on the island, but it has done so without compromising Sri Lanka’s internal stability. A military coup could open the door to increased U.S. influence, which might align with Bharat’s strategic interests on some fronts but also risks destabilizing the region further.

Bharat’s response will be critical in shaping the outcome. Whether through quiet diplomacy, economic incentives, or more direct intervention, New Delhi must navigate a complex web of alliances and rivalries to protect its interests without alienating Colombo.

A Nation at a Crossroads

Sri Lanka is at a critical juncture. The current administration’s efforts to dismantle the Rajapaksa legacy and reduce the military’s economic burden are bold but fraught with risks. The growing discontent within the military, coupled with external interference, creates a volatile situation that could spiral into a full-blown crisis.

If a coup does occur, it will not only reshape Sri Lanka’s political landscape but also have far-reaching implications for the region. The United States, China, and Bharat all have stakes in the outcome, and their actions in the coming months will determine whether Sri Lanka emerges as a pawn in their strategic games or as a nation capable of charting its own course.

Conclusion: Balancing Domestic and Global Pressures

The specter of a military coup in Sri Lanka highlights the intersection of domestic discontent and international geopolitics. While the Rajapaksas may see an opportunity to return to power, their collaboration with external forces risks deepening divisions within the nation. For the current administration, the challenge lies in addressing the legitimate grievances of the military while maintaining its reform agenda.

Ultimately, Sri Lanka’s future depends on its ability to balance the competing pressures of domestic politics and global power plays. The choices made in Colombo will not only shape the nation’s destiny but also reverberate across South Asia and beyond.