Kumar Rakesh
Washington D.C. 6th Nov. As the US election progresses, speculation grows about how a potential second Trump administration might influence India-US relations. Known for his “America First” approach, Donald Trump has made it clear he aims to reshape US foreign policy to prioritize American interests. India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar recently remarked that regardless of whether Trump or Kamala Harris wins, the US is likely to lean towards an isolationist stance. Jaishankar’s comments reflect the anticipated shifts that a Trump victory could bring, potentially affecting several critical areas of India-US relations, from trade to military cooperation.
Trade Ties: Balancing Reciprocity and Strategic Partnership
Trade could become a central issue, as Trump has previously criticized India for imposing high tariffs on US goods. Last month, he emphasized his commitment to “reciprocity” in trade, noting India’s high tariffs as a particular area of focus. “The biggest charger of all is India,” Trump said, while acknowledging his positive relationship with Prime Minister Modi, who he described as a “great leader.” Trump’s tariff policies may create challenges for India’s IT, pharmaceutical, and textiles sectors, which rely heavily on the US market. However, a continued US pivot from China could provide India with new opportunities to attract American businesses seeking supply chain diversification.
Immigration: The Impact on Skilled Indian Professionals
Trump’s restrictive stance on immigration, particularly toward the H-1B visa program, has historically posed challenges for Indian professionals. During his first term, his administration increased wage requirements and implemented stricter visa regulations, affecting Indian IT workers and firms. If these policies are reintroduced, the Indian workforce in the US, especially in the tech sector, may face added hurdles. Jaishankar acknowledged that while Trump could pursue tough negotiations on trade and immigration, he has also shown a strong affinity for India and Prime Minister Modi.
Military Cooperation: Shared Strategic Goals in the Indo-Pacific
Defence ties have been a cornerstone of India-US relations in recent years, strengthened under the Biden administration through initiatives like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and the GE-HAL jet engine manufacturing agreement. Trump’s foreign policy approach towards military alliances, particularly NATO, suggests he may adopt a cautious approach to pacts. However, defence ties with India could continue due to shared objectives in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Under Trump’s last term, the Quad—an alliance of the US, India, Japan, and Australia—gained prominence, aimed at counterbalancing China’s growing power in the region. Trump’s “Peace through Strength” doctrine may further bolster defence and counterterrorism collaboration, aligning with India’s security concerns, especially regarding Pakistan’s role in regional terrorism.
Conclusion: Opportunities and Uncertainties for India
As the world watches the election results, the possibility of Trump’s return brings both opportunities and challenges for India-US relations. A second Trump administration could see new trade dynamics, immigration policy shifts, and sustained military cooperation, all with a cautious yet strategic tilt towards India. With Trump emphasizing American interests, India may need to navigate a balancing act that preserves its strategic gains while adapting to potential new policy landscapes.
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